It's a new week, and Monday is giving us a 10-pack of games. There is some rain to navigate, but pitchers are making their third starts, so there is plenty of data to go off. Make sure you check out the weather before betting today!
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Monday, April 14.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 14
Ryan u4.5 hits allowed (+100 at Caesars)
May u5.5 strikeouts (-113 at Caesars)
Carrasco u3.5 strikeouts (-113 at Caesars)
Today's SP best bets
Mets vs. Twins
The angle: Joe Ryan is elite and is getting a shorter workload in 2025.
The move: Joe Ryan Under 4.5 hits allowed (+100 at Caesars)
Joe Ryan has yet to throw more than 85 pitches over three starts this year and is coming off a seven-inning scoreless masterclass vs. the Royals with just two hits allowed.
I'm not betting his Over outs today because of the potentially limited pitch count, so he could see a smaller volume of batters, which is great for the Under on his hits allowed props. Even if he does go deep, he has the stuff to stay Under the five hits mark, too.
His home splits are in his favor, with better numbers at Target Field than on the road since 2023. He'll also face a New York Mets offense hitting .215 on the year, ranking 24th in the league.
There is also the projected rain. He might have an abbreviated start because of it. It's cold and wet, and there is no need for the Minnesota Twins to push Ryan in poor weather.
Rockies vs. Dodgers
The angle: Dustin May's matchup is priced in, but he is not missing many bats to start the season and is not getting deep.
The move: Dustin May Under 5.5 strikeouts (-113 at Caesars)
The Colorado Rockies may be a lay-up matchup, but that is always priced in. What isn't is Dustin May's strikeout potential.
The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander hasn't pitched more than 56 innings in any of his six MLB seasons and is coming off a one-strikeout outing vs. the Nationals, who are one of the best K% matchups in baseball. He's striking out 16% of the batters faced, and his swing K% is a poor 7.7%.
To his credit, May has allowed just four hits over 11 innings, but he is pitching to weak contact, and his .133 BABIP is due to get blown up.
THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches and 5.06 Ks tonight vs. the Rockies. This is a pitcher who has 181 Ks across 202 innings for his career. He might get a strikeout per inning today, but getting 18 outs on a short pitch count is no easy task, even vs. the Rockies.
Yankees vs. Royals
The angle: Carlos Carrasco might be the worst starter in baseball, and his leash is getting short.
The move: Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts (-113 at Caesars)
Carlos Carrasco is not a good pitcher anymore. He gives up a ton of hard contact and might not be a starter for much longer. If the New York Yankees weren't dealing with injuries, he would likely not be starting. But here we are. He allowed three home runs in his last start and now has to face the Kansas City Royals in the Bronx.
The right-hander lasted just 59 pitches in his last turn and might not see the lineup a third time through the order. Four Ks is not a lot, but Carrasco is on the rocks and could get knocked out of this game early. His days as a starter might soon be numbered.
Not intended for use in MA.
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