Cubs vs Pirates Predictions, Picks, Odds: Powering Their Way Past Pittsburgh

Two National League Central rivals will be looking to move up the divisional standings when the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs for the start of a three-game series on Monday night.

The Pirates were once the darlings of Major League Baseball, but they've lost six straight to fall to 34-36. The Cubs (33-38) struggled through the first two months of the season, but they've won seven of nine to climb back within four games of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

Pittsburgh is turning to unproven starter Osvaldo Bido on Monday, which could provide some opportunities for Chicago batters to tee off. We’ll talk about who can take advantage of this matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Pirates on June 19.

Cubs vs Pirates odds

Cubs vs Pirates predictions

Christopher Morel has come into his own for the Chicago Cubs during his second season in the majors. The 23-year-old showed some promise as a rookie, putting up a solid .741 OPS and flashing some power with 16 home runs across 425 plate appearances. But he didn’t excel while failing to get noticed in the NL Rookie of the Year race.

Now Morel has been turning into a dangerous power hitter in 2023 who has also improved at putting the ball into play. Morel came to the majors in early May after opening the season with Triple-A Iowa, and he's been raking ever since. The slugger has put up 13 home runs over just 120 plate appearances while hitting .291 with a 1.042 OPS.

Morel has been helping to power Chicago’s recent run of good play as well. He's hit four homers in his last eight games while playing all over the field, primarily as an outfielder or designated hitter. The Cubs may have found a future middle-of-the-order hitter they can also comfortably deploy in both the infield and the outfield, even if he’s not considered a plus defender.

Now Morel will get the chance to hit against fellow Dominican Osvaldo Bido. The 27-year-old righty made his debut in the big leagues on June 14 against the Cubs in Chicago after spending six years working through the Pittsburgh Pirates’ minor-league system. Bido threw four fairly effective innings, giving up just one run on four hits while striking out six and walking three.

Morel received only two looks at Bido in that game, going 0-for-2. However, we can expect Morel — along with the rest of Chicago's lineup — to fare better the second time around after being able to watch tape on Bido.

The utility player has also been crushing right-handers. He’s hitting .306 with a 1.072 OPS against righties in 2023, and Morel has hit 10 home runs over just 93 plate appearances versus righties.

Add it all up, and Morel is positioned perfectly to produce against Bido. There’s never a guarantee of a player going deep, but he should get plenty of opportunities to hit a dinger on Monday night, and there are juicy long odds available.

My best bet: Christopher Morel to hit a home run (+575 at bet365)

Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay

Christopher Morel to hit a home run

Cubs moneyline

Cubs Over 6.5 runs

+1100 at DraftKings

We can structure an entire parlay around Morel hitting a home run to get a lot of extra value. That starts with keeping his home run prop on the same-game parlay.

If Morel goes deep, there’s a good chance he’ll do so as part of a Cubs win. Chicago is a -135 road favorite in the game, and the team will enjoy a significant advantage on the mound with Drew Smyly against Bido.

Finally, I’m adding the Cubs to score Over 6.5 runs. That’s a fairly high total, but it correlates well with both of our earlier picks. If Chicago is going to win in a game with Morel hitting a homer, they'll surely also score a fair amount of runs. The Cubs won 10-6 against the Pirates on June 14 when Smyly and Bido last faced off.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Cubs opened tonight’s game as a -120 favorite. The consensus line now puts Chicago as about a -130 pick to win. You can get odds as long as +116 on the Pirates.

While they’ve been playing well lately, the Cubs struggled through a terrible start to the season, and the club has still lost nearly five units on the moneyline for bettors in 2023. The Pirates have moved in the opposite direction after fading following a strong start, but they're still up a unit on the campaign.

Bido produced a decent debut, but he’s never been particularly effective, even at the minor-league level. He put up a 4.40 ERA in the Pittsburgh system over six seasons, including a 4.55 ERA in 2023 in Indianapolis. I expect the Cubs to improve against him during the second opportunity, so I’m leaning toward Chicago.

Monday’s total opened at nine runs, and it remains at that number as of midday with a slight tilt toward the Over. While you can get +100 on the Under, -110 is the best you can find on the Over.

Neither team comes with a clear lean toward one side of the total. Chicago is dead even on the year, while the Over is 34-33-3 in Pirates games.

While PNC Park isn’t as conducive to offense as Wrigley Field, this same pitching matchup produced 16 runs on June 14. The over is the play with the Cubs likely to do better against Bido and both squads carrying shaky bullpens.

Trend to know

Christopher Morel has homered in four of his last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates

Cubs vs Pirates game info

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA): The 34-year-old Smyly has never been a star, but he's proven to be reliable throughout his 10-year MLB career. That trend continues in Chicago, where he's put up middle-of-the-rotation numbers for two campaigns. Smyly struggled during his last start against the Pirates in Chicago, giving up five runs on nine hits over six innings of work.

Osvaldo Bido (0-0, 2.25 ERA): Bido made his major league debut on June 14 against the Cubs, giving up one run on four hits over four innings. While the 27-year-old has never been spectacular during his minor-league career, he does throw a solid fastball in the mid-90s and an effective cutter. Long term, Bido may project to be more of a long reliever in the majors than a starter, as he lacks a consistent secondary pitch that can put away hitters.

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