The Arizona Diamondbacks surprised everyone last year with their run to the World Series and meet an Atlanta Braves team coming off a disappointing postseason after recording an MLB-best 104 wins.
Diamondbacks starter Tommy Henry is a large MLB odds underdog when he meets Braves star Spencer Strider in the Friday night opener of their three-game series.
Can the Diamondbacks pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks for the Diamondbacks and Braves on Friday, April 5.
Diamondbacks vs Braves odds
Diamondbacks vs Braves predictions
The three-game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves pits two of the National League's premier baseball clubs, and this should be a fantastic series.
Arizona is off to a 4-3 start, but is a considerable underdog tonight. That big number is mainly because Atlanta righty Spencer Strider has been nearly unbeatable at Truist Park, and Tommy Henry can’t seem to beat anyone.
The MLB odds aren’t skewed because the Snakes can’t beat the Braves at Truist; they defeated Atlanta twice in last season's lone three-game series in the Braves yard, so maybe that number has more to do with Henry than anything else.
The D-backs southpaw hasn’t pitched well anywhere. He walks nearly four hitters per nine, and while he does cough up 2.20 bombs per nine this season, he’s primarily a ground ball pitcher with a career 1.40 home runs per nine.
That isn’t the best situation to back a pitcher as a road dog, but he’s also whiffing nine per nine this season and meets a Braves offense with a significant strikeout rate (30%) against southpaws.
Here's the thing about Henry, though: He can strike out 6+ on any given night, but the problem with the D-backs lefty has been the free passes that lead to home runs. Otherwise, he’s been pretty good and meets a Braves offense that haven’t been good against lefties.
The Braves have big lumber in their lineup but have begun slowly against left-handed pitching. They’ve struck out 30% of the time against port-siders this season, and playing in their home opener might have them pressing early tonight.
Finally, Henry isn’t as bad as his numbers appear. He made a couple of bad pitches that led to a two-run bomb in his season opener, but only walked two over his four innings on the bump. He did fan one per frame and meets a Braves offense that might press a bit tonight in their home opener. They have struggled against left-handed pitching thus far, and if Henry can keep the ball down in the zone like he mostly did against the Rockies, he’ll get enough opportunities to clear his 4.5 strikeout prop.
My best bet: Tommy Henry Over 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at FanDuel)
Diamondbacks vs Braves same-game parlay
Tommy Henry Over 4.5 strikeouts
First-5 Under 4.5
Ozzie Albies to record an RBI
If Henry does what I believe he will do, our ticket's First 5 Under 4.5 run leg will also likely land. Strider’s has dominated this collection of Diamondbacks, and that should continue tonight.
To complete the SGP, we’ll back 2B Ozzie Albies, the Braves RBI leader with five RBIs over his past eight at Truist Park.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Diamondbacks vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Minimal action has been taken on this game–Arizona opened as more than a 2-1 underdog across the US markets, and prices went from +215 (Caesars) to +237 (Pinnacle).
- The opener had 8.5 runs without any movement on the number, but we saw the juice rise at FanDuel from the Over 8.5 (-105) opener to Over 8.5 (-115). The odds on the Under dipped from -115 to -105.
- The Under is 7-1 in Striders' last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Trend to know
Tommy Henry has struck out five hitters or more in three of his past five away matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Braves
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Diamondbacks vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, BSSO |
Starting pitchers
Tommy Henry (0-1, 11.25 ERA): Henry has struggled throughout his brief, two-season career. He surrendered five earned runs in his home opener and has a career 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 140 MLB innings.
Spencer Strider (0-0, 3.60 ERA): Strider is coming off a 20-5 season, but a pair of playoff losses to the Phillies ruined an otherwise brilliant campaign. He twirled a beauty in his opener against Philadelphia and will look to continue that trend tonight.
