There are rivalries, and then there are AFC North rivalries — none of which burn hotter than the one between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.
These divisional foes face off for a third time this season on Saturday night with the stakes and intensity higher than ever. However, the hefty point spread for this Wild Card Weekend clash doesn’t exactly paint the picture of a competitive contest.
My Steelers vs. Ravens predictions believe that if Pittsburgh is going to stand toe-to-toe with Baltimore, it needs to not only score points but control the football and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. parked on the sideline. A healthy dose of the running game will do the trick, which means a big day from dynamic RB Jaylen Warren.
I break down the NFL odds and give my best NFL picks for Saturday, January 11.
Steelers vs Ravens prediction
My best bet
Jaylen Warren Over 55.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers will look to Jaylen Warren to wear multiple hats on Saturday. The versatile running back has seen his usage spike in the home stretch as his health and output improved.
Warren has become more than just a "third-down back" for the Steelers, with head coach Mike Tomlin praising his pass catching and ability to grind out gains on the ground, as well as his blocking.
He’s seen just as much action on handoffs as he has in receptions in the second half of the season, averaging 40 yards rushing and 27 yards receiving in his past nine outings.
Warren is coming off a quiet Week 18 effort in which he attempted just six runs for 21 yards and was targeted only once without a catch in the loss to the Bengals. An early 10-0 hole left Pittsburgh to pass more (just 23 handoffs vs. average of 31.4 per game), and Warren was on the field for just 38% of snaps.
However, in the Week 16 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, Warren saw his highest snap count of the season, playing 67% of offensive snaps for the Steelers. He ran 12 times for 48 rushing yards and reeled in all five passes his way for 44 yards through the air.
The Ravens have been among the stingiest run stop units in the land, allowing a league-low 3.6 yards per carry, but have been susceptible to pass-catching RBs. On the season, Baltimore allowed the fourth most receiving yards to the position.
Warren’s projections are quite positive. All but one of his rushing models resourced called for 40 or more yards, with a ceiling of 44 yards, while his receiving forecast sat above 20 yards with a high of 25.5. While the rushing projection looks good against his run yardage total of 32.5 O/U, game script says the Steelers are trailing and throwing more, which keeps Warren in play as a pass catcher.
My numbers boiled down to a collective 65.5 rushing + receiving yards from the shifty back out of Oklahoma State, which sits well above his combo prop of 55.5 yards O/U.
Steelers vs Ravens same-game parlay
Jaylen Warren 50+ rushing + receiving yards
Derrick Henry anytime TD
Steelers +10
Warren had a big game versus Baltimore in Week 16 and his projections call for more of that on Saturday.
If and when the Ravens get to the goal line, Derrick Henry will get the call. He also ran all over the Steelers in their last meeting.
This is too many points in this AFC North rivalry, especially with the Steelers in much better shape than they were in that Week 16 blowout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL Playoffs picks and odds from Covers
Steelers vs Ravens odds
Steelers vs Ravens live odds
Steelers vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +10 | Baltimore -10
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +360 | Baltimore -456
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened at -8.5 and books moved quick on early action, pushing through dead numbers and stopping at the key spot of -10.
- The Ravens closed as 7.5-point home chalk when they faced the Steelers in Week 16. Double-digit postseason faves have gone 13-5 ATS since 2010.
- The Over/Under opened at 46.5 and has slipped as low as 43, before coming back up to 43.5. That’s a half-point higher than the closing total of Week 16’s meeting, which played Over the number of 44 O/U.
- These foes have gone 2-8 Over/Under in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Steelers vs Ravens betting trend to know
Mike Tomlin is notorious for his success as a betting underdog during his tenure in Pittsburgh (62% ATS since 2007). Make his team an underdog against the AFC North and Pittsburgh covers at a 72% clip, including a 13-3-2 ATS mark as a pup versus Baltimore. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
Steelers vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-11-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Steelers vs Ravens latest injuries
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