The MLB Wild Card round is underway with World Series odds beginning to evolve as the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers host the NL West’s Arizona Diamondbacks.
These two teams squared off six times this season, with Arizona claiming four of those games, but they'll be MLB odds underdogs due to tonight's pitching matchup.
Will the Diamondbacks take care of business once again, or can the Brewers defend their home turf? Our MLB playoff predictions have the best free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers on Tuesday, October 3.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers series odds
Diamondbacks
BrewersDiamondbacks vs Brewers predictions
The Brewers’ ace, Corbin Burnes, takes the mound in Game 1 and should be a good candidate to back. Putting together yet another tremendous campaign, Burnes is 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 32 starts.
His underlying metrics are also excellent, ranking in the 82nd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel% and hard-hit%. A 200-strikeout pitcher, he also ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in chase%, whiff% and K%.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 via BetMGM, a total he has surpassed in each of his past five starts when he was not on a pitch count (Milwaukee limited his meaningless outing against St. Louis).
This strikeout success is likely to continue against Arizona, a team he has typically fared well against. Through five career starts against the Diamondbacks, Burnes is 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 10.67 K/9.
While the Dbacks have relied heavily on their pitching this year, the lineup has not held up its side of the bargain. To conclude the regular season, Arizona finished in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.
It has also regressed in the strikeout department over the second half of the campaign, moving towards the middle-of-the-pack in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Through 87 career plate appearances against Burnes, this current Diamondbacks lineup possesses a fade-worthy 26.5 whiff%.
My best bet: Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers same-game parlay
Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
Brewers ML (-184)
Carlos Santana records a hit (-195)
In a way, the Diamondbacks are almost “punting” in Game 1. Yes, they are obviously going to try to win the game, but in a tough matchup against Burnes the Dbacks, are opting to save their better starting pitchers — Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly — for Games 2 and 3.
Instead, Arizona hands the ball to Brandon Pfaadt to kick off this series. Through 19 appearances in his rookie campaign, Pfaadt is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
His analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely in the postseason, ranking in the 33rd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel% and hard-hit%. Not only are we going to target the Brewers to take care of business in this lopsided pitching matchup, but we’ll back Carlos Santana to record a hit in the process.
He’s 1-2 in his career against Pfaadt and has recorded at least one hit in seven of his past eight games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Brewers opened as –178 favorites and have since been bet up to -184. I expect this line to only continue to widen as Milwaukee boasts the better pitcher, lineup and bullpen along with home-field advantage.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 7.5 and has since been bet up to eight. This movement along with the Brewers’ moneyline movement suggests that the market is not respecting Pfaadt, which completely makes sense considering he is a rookie making his first playoff start on the road following a season in which he performed poorly.
Trend to know
Burnes has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA): It has been a tough rookie season for Pfaadt, and his analytics suggest that he will continue to struggle in the playoffs. It’s the playoffs so we should always “expect the unexpected”, but there really is nothing to like about this right-hander other than his ability to limit walking opposing batters.
Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39 ERA): The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner has notched his third-straight All-Star season, each of which culminated with 200+ strikeouts and a sub-3.40 ERA. Burnes has been the backbone of this ballclub over that stretch, and he will need to set the tempo for this series, especially with the Brandon Woodruff injury.
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