Ah, the familiar sense of coming home!
The Los Angeles Dodgers return to Chavez Ravine following a nine-game road trip, where they went 7-2 and are fresh off a three-game sweep of the Giants.
Next up: a five-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Diamondbacks and Dodgers on Monday, September 19.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Clayton Kershaw just pitched against the Diamondbacks last week, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 win on September 13. He’s back on the bump to face his divisional foe, except this time he’ll be pitching in the confines of Dodger Stadium.
He hasn’t slowed down a bit in his age-34 season and gets a favorable matchup on Monday. The Diamondbacks have struggled mightily against southpaws, ranking 30th in both wOBA and wRC+ against lefties in the month of September — and they haven't been much better the rest of the year, either. There’s every reason to expect another solid outing from Kershaw against the worst team in the league against left-handers recently.
The Diamondbacks have struggled in general on the road, going 40-92 in their last 132 road games. When we narrow that down to road games against a left-handed starter, they’re just 15-38 over their last 53.
Arizona has flat out been struggling at the plate — regardless of the handedness of opposing pitchers — ranking 23rd in both wOBA and WRC+ in September. Naturally, this has led to a lot of games finishing below the total. Arizona is 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games overall and 4-0 to the Under in its last four games against a left-handed starting pitcher.
One angle I like to play is fading teams coming off Sunday Night Baseball. That being said, I’m not considering a play on the Diamondbacks here. They’ve been miserable against lefties and bad on the road, and now have a very difficult matchup against Kershaw. Therefore, I’ll target the total instead and play the Under.
In both Friday's and Sunday’s Dodgers writeups, I recommended the Under as my best bet — and both cashed. The Under is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ last six games overall, all against right-handed starting pitchers. They are 4-1 to the Under in their last five Monday games, and it’s a potential flat spot coming off a Sunday Night Baseball appearance, nine-game road trip, and sweep of their rival Giants.
Merrill Kelly’s 3.28 xERA is the best mark of his career, and he’s posted a stellar 2.95 road ERA this season. He’s been very profitable to the Under, as the Diamondbacks have gone 17-11 to the Under in games that he starts. I’ll take that trend to continue on Monday.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (+100 at bet365)
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. Their +329 run differential is 120 runs better than the next-closest team — the New York Yankees, who are 88-58 with a +209 differential. It’s been a display of dominance all year for the Dodgers, and they haven’t slowed a bit.
Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 games, while Arizona is 3-7. If we stretch that out two more games, Arizona is just 3-9 across its last 12 games overall. This is a team that has struggled mightily against good teams, going 54-113 in its last 167 games against a team with a winning record.
The Dodgers have been an unstoppable force and it’s World Series or bust while the Diamondbacks are floating around aimlessly below .500 with no clear trajectory moving forward. It should come as no surprise that Los Angeles has dominated this series, going 40-12 in the last 52 meetings in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are hefty -260 favorites at home, and that price seems warranted.
Over/Under analysis
Arizona has struggled mightily against good pitching, going just 28-66 in their last 94 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15. It should come as no surprise that the Under is 4-0 in their last four games against a starter with those qualifications. That’ll be the case on Monday, as Kershaw has a minuscule 0.93 WHIP and should contain a lineup that has posted a putrid .531 OPS against southpaws in September.
I have outlined above why I like the Under in this matchup, and the same logic above applies here as well. Allow me to take this space to discuss Kershaw’s strikeout prop, which is listed as 5.5 at DraftKings with -130 juice to the Over.
These teams played a week ago and Kershaw’s prop was at 6.5. He finished with only five strikeouts in that game, cashing the Under despite pitchings seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball. Does that warrant a drop in his strikeout prop down to 5.5? I don’t think so.
Kershaw has a 26.6% strikeout rate this season and is facing the worst lineup in the league against lefties this month. The Diamondbacks’ poor job of getting on base against southpaws should allow him to pitch deep into this game yet again, allowing him more opportunities for punchouts. .
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, September 19, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Arizona, SportsNet Los Angeles
Starting pitchers
Merrill Kelly (12-6, 3.01 ERA): Kelly is having the best season of his career outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. His 3.01 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are both encouraging, and his 3.28 xERA doesn't raise the regression alarm. The biggest reasons for improvement have been a low 8.1% home run to fly ball rate and a drop in BABIP from .301 a year ago to .265 this year.
Clayton Kershaw (8-3, 2.44 ERA): Kershaw just keeps on ticking. In his age-34 season, Kershaw is posting his lowest xERA (.252) since 2015. His 2.44 ERA and 2.65 FIP are both superb. His numbers are mostly in line with his career norms, although — similar to Kelly — he has a deflated home run to flyball rate (8.6%).
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Diamondbacks are 6-1 to the Under in their last seven games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
