We have the fourth matchup of this five-game NL West intradivisional series with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks. This contest is the 18th meeting between these two clubs this season, with the Dodgers winning 14 of the first 17 matchups.
Will Los Angeles take care of business once again, or can the Diamondbacks pull off the upset as a large road favorite? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs Dodgers on Wednesday, September 21.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Left-hander Madison Bumgarner is taking the mound for Arizona and should be a good candidate to fade in this game. Through 29 starts this season, Bumgarner is 6-15 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
While it has been a tough year for the veteran, he enters this game in particularly poor form. Over Bumgarner's last nine starts, he’s 0-6 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. It doesn’t get any better against the Dodgers, against whom he’s 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season.
Through 310 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Los Angeles roster possesses a .222 BA, .419 SLG, and .302 wOBA. However, we’re going to be backing one specific hitter in this matchup: Justin Turner.
Turner has had yet another fantastic season, boasting a .286 BA, .457 SLG, and .816 OPS. Entering this game in tremendous form, he has collected at least two total bases in six of his last eight games (75%).
We should expect this strong hitting to continue against Bumgarner. Across 84 career plate appearances against Bumgarner, Turner boasts a .247 BA, .455 SLG, and .323 wOBA.
Regression should not be a concern in this matchup considering Turner possesses a .241 xBA, .445 xSLG, and .317 xwOBA across those 84 at-bats.
My best bet: Justin Turner Over 1.5 total bases (+108)
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers betting preview
Jump to:
•Moneyline analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather
Moneyline analysis
I love the Dodgers in this matchup, and so do the books, as they are three-dollar favorites. Even their runline is juiced to –145, which is too much for me to lay in a divisional matchup.
If you’re cool with laying the juice, they should be able to win by at least two runs considering right-hander Dustin May is taking the mound for Los Angeles. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, he’s been dominant on the mound.
We saw this in full display during his last outing as he threw five no-hit innings against San Francisco. However, he was pulled after his usual 15 outs, as the organization wants to save his arm as much as possible for the playoffs.
Following May is likely the best bullpen in baseball. Since August 1, the Dodgers’ relief pitching ranks first in the league in ERA, WHIP, BA, SLG, and wOBA.
Los Angeles has covered the runline in six of its last 10 games.
Over/Under analysis
The O/U is tough to gauge in this contest, which is typical for Dodgers games due to their combination of lockdown pitching and explosive offense. That trend should continue in this game considering May is taking the mound against Bumgarner.
May has been great and is followed by the best bullpen in the league. Meanwhile, Bumgarner’s best days are long behind him, and he is going against the deepest lineup in baseball.
Arizona’s offense is not terrible either, which means they could contribute a few runs to get this game over the total. However, I want no part of this bet considering the disparity in the pitching matchup.
Betting trend to know
Justin Turner has collected at least two total bases in six of his last eight games (75%). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, SNLA
Starting pitchers
Madison Bumgarner (6-15, 5.01 ERA): While he will go down as one of this generation’s best pitchers, Bumgarner’s best days are far behind him. Not only has he struggled mightily this season, but he enters this contest in particularly poor form.
Over his last nine starts, Bumgarner is 0-6 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. As he has always done, Bumgarner relies on his cutter and 4-seam fastball to set up his curveball and changeup. However, hitters boast an xBA of .250 or higher against all four of those pitches this season.
Dustin May (2-2, 3.46 ERA): Making his sixth start since returning from Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will look to continue his strong performances. In his last game against the Giants, May threw five no-hit innings.
The Dodgers pulled him because they have the first seed locked up and they want to keep his arm as fresh as possible for the playoffs. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, he does an excellent job mixing his pitches to keep hitters honest.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
