The battle of Los Angeles will begin tonight as both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles will send southpaws to the mound in the series opener at Angel Stadium where the visiting Dodgers sit as slight -125 faves.
Reid Detmers has struggled to get deep into games and now faces arguably the best lineup in baseball — even with some injuries. Will it be another short outing for the Angels starter who has pitched through the sixth inning just twice this season over 12 starts?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Angels on Tuesday, June 20.
Dodgers vs Angels odds
Dodgers vs Angels predictions
Reid Detmers has been a good-to-average pitcher in his third season in the big leagues but he is a lefty that uses a lot of pitches to record outs. He’s recorded 18 or more outs just twice this season over 12 starts and now faces an elite Los Angeles Dodgers offense.
Max Muncy is out with a groin injury and Chris Taylor could draw back in after sitting out the weekend with a knee injury. Taylor could play third base and Dave Roberts could slot Jason Heyward in right field, which would be the optimal lineup for Detmers’ Under 16.5 outs prop at even money.
This Dodgers lineup can launch long balls, which plays well at Angel Stadium tonight featuring mid-70 temperatures and 9-mph winds blowing out to center. It can also draw walks as it has the No. 2 BB% in baseball and doesn’t strike out a ton. This offense can knock Detmers out early or just rack up that pitch count with lengthy at-bats that can finish in walks. There are multiple avenues in which this Under can cash.
The home-side starter averages 16 outs per start but has a big downgrade for the matchup tonight and the hitting environment. THE BAT is projecting 15.1 outs today, which is giving a ton of value to the Under 16.5 at even money. Some books are as low as -127 and there is still more room for those short prices to get even shorter as this market opened later in the day.
My best bet: Reid Detmers Under 16.5 outs (+100 at bet365)
Dodgers vs Angels same-game parlay
Reid Detmers Under 16.5 outs (+100)
Clayton Kershaw Under 18.5 outs (-220)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Neither starter projects to hit the Over on their current outs total and Clayton Kershaw's Under 18.5 has an 81.1% win probability, per THE BAT. He has pitched a lot this season and pitching him into the seventh inning is improbable. The middle of this Los Angeles Angels order can also chase him the third time through as the lefty averages 5.9 batters faced the third time through the order.
Detmers is also a reverse-splits guy and lefty hitters can give him issues. On the season, left-handed hitters are slashing .320/.404/.500 vs. Detmers, making Freddie Freeman the offensive target in a good matchup for the LAD offense. Freeman has been a little cold of late but still has a 1.045 OPS over the last 30 days and has a better OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season.
The true odds are +538 but there is a correlation between the Freeman prop and the Detmers Under. It's on the threshold of SGP I'm willing to take but bettors should also be aware of how much the books are taking away from SGPs every time they make these bets.
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Dodgers vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers opened as short as -154 and saw bettors pile on the home side, driving that moneyline to -125 with a total of 8.5 that sporadically hit 9 early this morning.
The Dodgers are still without Muncy and Taylor is questionable, but even shorthanded, this is the better offense one through nine. The Angels have been one of the best offenses in baseball ranking second in wRC+ over the last 30 days, but this is still a middle-heavy lineup that gets much weaker at the bottom and is without Anthony Rendon, Gio Urshela, and rookie Zach Neto.
The Dodgers also have a very good starting pitching matchup. I wouldn’t bet on Kershaw continuing to get deep into every start, but he has been dominant early this season and is currently the No. 2 betting favorite in NL Cy Young odds. He’s been extremely efficient and is averaging just 93 pitches per start but 17.64 outs per turn. His 15.73 pitches per inning is also a top-tier mark in baseball this year.
It’s tough to see the love for the Angels here, especially since the Dodgers have lost three straight games. The movement is odd as Kershaw seldom sees action against him, but I’m happy with the Dodgers at -125. Still, I prefer the starting pitching matchup and would take the Dodgers F5 ML at -140. The difference in those ML prices indicates the early edge that the visitors have.
As for the total, hitting conditions are solid with 9-mph winds blowing out and Angel Stadium is a sneaky good hitters’ park. It seems every time the total has hit 9, it was bet back down to 8.5 which proves the projection is somewhere very close to both numbers. THE BAT is projecting over five runs combined from both starters but with each bullpen rested and the Halos having one of the best stable of relievers in baseball, late runs could be hard to find pushing me off of this Over even at 8.5.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Angels
Dodgers vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (8-4, 2.95 ERA): Kershaw is currently the No. 2 betting favorite for the NL Cy Young at +550 and will be making his 15th start of the season. He’s projected to throw his highest volume of innings since the 2015 season and has already tossed 89-plus to date. He has eight quality starts and has increased his K% but also has his worst HR/FB rate in four seasons. He hasn’t thrown more than 126 innings since 2019 and might see a shorter leash as the season progresses. LA is 9-5 in Kershaw’s start and THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16.4 outs, 6.24 strikeouts, and 2.36 earned runs.
Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.48 ERA): Detmers is making his 13th start of the season and averages 93 pitches per start and 5 1/3 innings. He carries a 76:26 K/BB ratio over 62 1/3 innings but has just two quality starts this season. The Angels are 4-8 SU in Detmers’ starts and THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 15.1 outs, 5.17 strikeouts, and 2.93 earned runs.
