The Dodgers (37-21) have had a rough stretch in the past two weeks, going 4-7 in their last 11, including a loss in last night's series opener against the San Francisco Giants (31-26).
The Giants' fortune as of late hasn't been as bad, but they've also failed to log consecutive wins yet this month and will look to buck that trend on Saturday night as they try to keep pace with their NL West counterparts.
Can the Giants take advantage of a slumping Dodgers team or will Los Angeles rally behind Clayton Kershaw's return to the mound after a month-long absence?
Continue reading our free MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs Giants on Saturday, June 11th.
Dodgers vs Giants odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as moderate -155 road favorites but have moved as high as -190 at some shops. The total opened at 8.5 and that number has remained steady across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Giants predictions
Picks made on 6/11/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dodgers vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Dodgers vs Giants betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (4-0, 1.80 ERA): The man who needs no introduction was putting together yet another stellar campaign prior to being placed on the injured list with an inflammation in his right SI joint, which connects the lower end of the spine to the hip. Kershaw last pitched on May 7th against the Cubs, when he allowed just five hits and one walk in a seven-inning shutout outing. Kershaw has allowed one run or less in all but one of his five starts.
Sam Long (0-1, 2.35 ERA): The 26-year-old reliever has served occasionally as an "opener" for the Giants, with three such appearances this season. In those starts, he has allowed one run across four innings, as well as just four hits and no walks. Long made his major league debut last year and put together a not-so-great 5.53 ERA across 40 2-3 innings, but has been much better and more reliable in 2022 thus far (2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: No key injuries to report.
Giants: Evan Longoria 3B (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Giants have gone 16-10-2 (61.5%) towards the Over at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants
Dodgers vs Giants picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
For a decade now, Kershaw's year-over-year excellence has been unsurprising. That's not to say it is unimpressive, but it's just that he has operated with such high-level consistency that we almost come to expect Cy Young-worthy campaigns each season.
Across his 15 seasons, Kershaw has had just three seasons with an ERA above 3.00. One was his debut campaign (4.26 ERA) and another was one where he barely missed the mark with a 3.03 ERA in 2019. Last year he pitched to "just" a 3.55 ERA, a mark the vast majority of starters wish they could call a down year.
And maybe it was that "pedestrian" campaign for the former MVP, three-time Cy Young winner, and eight-time All-Star that made his 2022 start so surprising. The now 34-year-old began the season with a seven-inning hitless outing in which he struck out 13 batters, and then he added another three starts in which he allowed no more than one run. He pitched to a 1.80 ERA and 0.73 WHIP before landing on the injured list.
Kershaw will return to the mound on Saturday night in hopes of giving the Dodgers the boost they need to turn around their recent misfortunes. Los Angeles has won just four games across their last 11, largely due to poor pitching. Prior to this stretch, they were tied for the fewest runs allowed per game (3.09). They've allowed exactly five runs per game in the last eleven and managed to squeak out a few wins during that time, largely due to their league-leading offense which has averaged 5.29 runs per game this season.
Thankfully for the Dodgers, Kershaw's excellence has largely translated in his sample against San Francisco. Across 162 combined plate appearances, current-day Giants batters have managed just a .210 average and .338 slugging percentage. Outside of Evan Longoria (.300 BA in 32 PA) and Austin Slater (.400 in 15), no other Giants' batters with sizable samples have notable splits against Kershaw, and the former is questionable for today's game.
And while he is coming off a month-long stint on the injured list, Kershaw should be largely good to go. He put together a one-run four-inning rehab start on Sunday and reportedly felt good across the 59 pitches. Even if he operates on a pitch count, he has a Dodgers bullpen that allows a 3.58 ERA, which is the ninth-best mark in the league.
That compares particularly favorably to the Giants, who will send Sam Long to the mound for his fourth start as the team's "opener" this season. Despite his last name, Long projects to pitch just a few innings before handing the ball over to the rest of the bullpen which has allowed a 4.33 ERA — the seventh-worst mark in the league.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-174 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Giants have played to the second-best Over record this year, going 30-24-3 (55.6%) that way thus far. They have been particularly Over-friendly at home, going 16-10-2 (61.5%) from the confines of Oracle Park.
However, they have not gone Over the total in five straight games now, going 3-0-2 towards the Under during that time. The Dodgers have just a 25-29-4 (46.3%) record to the Over and have managed one of the friendliest records to the Under on the road this season (18-10-3, 35.7%).
There are a lot of mixed signals within those subsets, so it may be best to look towards the weather in order to garner some clarity. The game projects to be chillier than usual at 58 degrees for the game, which plays towards the Under, given that balls are stored at a standard 70 degrees in humidors.
However, the humidity projects to be an abnormally high 81% (balls are stored at 50%) and the wind will be blowing out at a significant 19 miles per hour during play. Both of those marks are extremely friendly for the Over, and we may see more balls leave the park than usual on Saturday night.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at WynnBet)
Best bet
Given who they are sending to the mound and the fact that their bats have stayed moderately productive despite the recent 11-game stretch, the Dodgers are the side to be on tonight. However, despite the Dodger's bullpen's relative success over the larger sample of the season, things have been a bit messy as of late.
During this stretch of poor play dating back to May 30th, Dodger relievers have allowed a 5.61 ERA, the sixth-worst mark of any team during that time. It might be best to forego the troubles that could cause and limit our exposure to just Kershaw and isolate the first five innings.
Given that Sam Long will go two innings max and hand over the ball to the previously mentioned questionable relief arms of San Francisco, there is an edge there as well.
Pick: Dodgers first five innings -0.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
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