Tonight presents a must-win Game 5 for the New York Mets, and they'll send lefty David Peterson to the hill for his first career postseason start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
My Dodgers vs. Mets predictions expect a short outing for Peterson against a Los Angeles lineup that has been plating runs in bunches. Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, October 18, and don't miss our Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks!
Dodgers vs Mets prediction
Who will win Dodgers vs Mets Game 5?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have put 30 on the board, outscoring the New York Mets by 21 runs during the NLCS, and Los Angeles will have Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty toeing the rubber after holding New York scoreless across seven innings.
Los Angeles wins the National League pennant and punches its ticket to the World Series on Friday.
My Dodgers vs Mets best bet
David Peterson Under 3.5 strikeouts
(-115 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
David Peterson has recorded five strikeouts over 8 2/3 innings across four relief appearances during the playoffs, with his pitch count topping out at 50 in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies. Peterson fanned just a single batter.
He also threw 40 pitches across 2 1/3 frames in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers and recorded just a single strikeout.
Still, the real draw to this Under is Mets manager Carlos Mendoza already saying righty Kodai Senga is also going to be available to pitch in Game 5. This is a must-win game, and Peterson hasn’t started since Sunday, September 29. I don’t think he’s stretched out enough to throw more than 55 pitches tonight.
Of course, the Dodgers have also been a force this series and mashed against lefties with a second-ranked .341 wOBA while striking out the third least (19.8%) during the regular season. Los Angeles has also put 30 runs on the board during this series and has an overall 21.0 K% in the postseason.
This is a tough matchup in a likely abbreviated start for Peterson.
Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
David Peterson Under 3.5 strikeouts
Peterson Under 1.5 walks
As noted, I expect the Dodgers to take care of business Friday. Jack Flaherty spun seven shutout innings with just two hits and two walks against New York in Game 1, and the lopsided results in the first four haven’t been too taxing on the Los Angeles bullpen.
The angle for the Peterson Under 1.5 walks aligns with the Under 3.5 strikeouts. I don’t anticipate the lefty pitching deep enough into Friday’s game to hit either Over, and Peterson has only issued four free passes across his 8 2/3 innings this postseason.
He also walked far fewer batters down the stretch, with his 2.16 BB/9 and 5.9% walk rate across his final eight regular-season starts way below his respective 4.31 and 11.0% marks to start the year.
Finally, there’s also an advantage in the numbers for this same-game parlay. DraftKings is hanging +385 odds for this SGP, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 8% simply by betting the +425 bet365 price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
Dodgers vs Mets live odds
Dodgers vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -132 | New York +122
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+133) | New York +1.5 (-148)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+106) | Under 7.5 (-119)
Dodgers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a modest move to the Los Angeles side of this moneyline.
- The movement aligns with how well Flaherty pitched in Game 1, in addition to L.A.'s offense scoring runs in bunches.
- This total sits at 7.5 at both Pinnacle and bet365, and the higher vig is on the Under at both shops.
- Pinnacle tested a 7.0 total briefly, but the Over was steam quickly, and the book returned to 7.5 early Friday morning.
Dodgers vs Mets trend
New York Mets starter David Peterson has pitched three innings or fewer in each of his four postseason appearances, with just five total strikeouts across 8 2/3 frames. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.
Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (2024 postseason: 1-1, 2.92 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (2024 postseason: 1-0, 2.08 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries
Dodgers vs Mets weather
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