Dodgers vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds and Best Bet for Tonight’s Game 5

David Peterson gets the nod following strong relief work this postseason, but he won't be in the game long enough to eclipse his strikeout total.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Oct 18, 2024 • 14:02 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Tonight presents a must-win Game 5 for the New York Mets, and they'll send lefty David Peterson to the hill for his first career postseason start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

My Dodgers vs. Mets predictions expect a short outing for Peterson against a Los Angeles lineup that has been plating runs in bunches. Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, October 18, and don't miss our Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks!

Dodgers vs Mets prediction

Who will win Dodgers vs Mets Game 5?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have put 30 on the board, outscoring the New York Mets by 21 runs during the NLCS, and Los Angeles will have Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty toeing the rubber after holding New York scoreless across seven innings. 

Los Angeles wins the National League pennant and punches its ticket to the World Series on Friday.

My Dodgers vs Mets best bet

David Peterson Under 3.5 strikeouts
(-115 at BetMGM)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
David Peterson has recorded five strikeouts over 8 2/3 innings across four relief appearances during the playoffs, with his pitch count topping out at 50 in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies. Peterson fanned just a single batter.

He also threw 40 pitches across 2 1/3 frames in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers and recorded just a single strikeout.

Still, the real draw to this Under is Mets manager Carlos Mendoza already saying righty Kodai Senga is also going to be available to pitch in Game 5. This is a must-win game, and Peterson hasn’t started since Sunday, September 29. I don’t think he’s stretched out enough to throw more than 55 pitches tonight.

Of course, the Dodgers have also been a force this series and mashed against lefties with a second-ranked .341 wOBA while striking out the third least (19.8%) during the regular season. Los Angeles has also put 30 runs on the board during this series and has an overall 21.0 K% in the postseason. 

This is a tough matchup in a likely abbreviated start for Peterson.

Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)

Dodgers moneyline

David Peterson Under 3.5 strikeouts

Peterson Under 1.5 walks

As noted, I expect the Dodgers to take care of business Friday. Jack Flaherty spun seven shutout innings with just two hits and two walks against New York in Game 1, and the lopsided results in the first four haven’t been too taxing on the Los Angeles bullpen.

The angle for the Peterson Under 1.5 walks aligns with the Under 3.5 strikeouts. I don’t anticipate the lefty pitching deep enough into Friday’s game to hit either Over, and Peterson has only issued four free passes across his 8 2/3 innings this postseason.

He also walked far fewer batters down the stretch, with his 2.16 BB/9 and 5.9% walk rate across his final eight regular-season starts way below his respective 4.31 and 11.0% marks to start the year.

Finally, there’s also an advantage in the numbers for this same-game parlay. DraftKings is hanging +385 odds for this SGP, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 8% simply by betting the +425 bet365 price.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Mets odds

Dodgers vs Mets live odds

Dodgers vs Mets opening odds

  • Moneyline: Los Angeles -132 | New York +122
  • Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+133) | New York +1.5 (-148)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+106) | Under 7.5 (-119)

Dodgers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • There has been a modest move to the Los Angeles side of this moneyline.
  • The movement aligns with how well Flaherty pitched in Game 1, in addition to L.A.'s offense scoring runs in bunches.
  • This total sits at 7.5 at both Pinnacle and bet365, and the higher vig is on the Under at both shops.
  • Pinnacle tested a 7.0 total briefly, but the Over was steam quickly, and the book returned to 7.5 early Friday morning.

Dodgers vs Mets trend

New York Mets starter David Peterson has pitched three innings or fewer in each of his four postseason appearances, with just five total strikeouts across 8 2/3 frames. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.

Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 info

Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Date: Friday, 10-18-2024
First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Dodgers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
(2024 postseason: 1-1, 2.92 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
(2024 postseason: 1-0, 2.08 ERA)

Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries

Dodgers vs Mets weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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