In what could certainly be the NLCS come October, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will meet for the second straight day at Citi Field after the visitors took the opener as -130 favorites last night.
The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom today as heavy -165 favorites but are the Dodgers and Tyler Anderson getting disrespected with their longest odds of the season, especially after resetting their bullpen last night and the Mets struggling to give the ace run support?
Read my MLB betting picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Mets to find out.
Dodgers vs Mets best odds
Dodgers vs Mets picks and predictions
My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (+145 at bet365)
Even with the Dodgers having just four arms available out of the bullpen last night which included the absences of closer Craig Kimbrel and Chris Martin, they still closed as -135 favorites and didn’t have the starting pitching matchup advantage with Andrew Heaney vs. Taijaun Walker.
Now, the moneyline has swung nearly 100 points towards the Mets thanks to Jacob deGrom getting the ball. But with the L.A. bullpen ready to roll tonight and Tyler Anderson proving doubters wrong all season, I’m hopping on the Dodgers ML, which is the longest it has been all season at +145.
Many people talk about how great this L.A. offense is, and they're right, but their pitching has also been historic this season.
The only four teams in all of American and National League history to hold opponents under a .280 OBP:
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 26, 2022
2019 Los Angeles Dodgers (.279)
2020 Los Angeles Dodgers (.273)
2021 Los Angeles Dodgers (.279)
2022 Los Angeles Dodgers (.270) pic.twitter.com/KCrlarOyRG
With a total of 6.5, this is going to be a low-scoring game and I’m happy to back the dog here who is the first 90-win team in baseball and has had an offense that not enough people are talking about.
On the season, the Dodgers have scored 40 more runs than the next best team (the Yankees) and first or second in slugging, ISO, wRC+, and WAR. Mookie Betts is having another MVP season with a near-1.000 OPS, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman follow in the order, and Dave Roberts has enough pieces on the bench to get matchups advantages in the bottom-third of the lineup.
The books know that this offense is the best in baseball, but they're overpricing deGrom here. deGrom was a -222 home favorite vs. Aaron Nola and won 1-0, a -125 road favorite vs. the Braves in a 3-2 loss, and a -436 home favorite vs. the Rockies in a 3-1 win over his last three turns.
He isn’t getting much run support which has been his M/O and now he faces the best offense in baseball that has just reset its bullpen and has all its best arms available.
Anderson is a pitcher I have no issues backing as a mid-dog and although I feel like the books are baiting me to take the Dodgers in a projected low-scoring game, I’m taking the best offense in baseball that has held deGrom to an 0-4 record over 10 starts in his career.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Dodgers vs Mets betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Dodgers have been underdogs just four times all season heading into today. They closed last night as -130 favorites in a pitching matchup that slightly favored the Mets in Andrew Heaney vs. Taijuan Walker.
Now, the home side has swung nearly 100 points with Jacob deGrom getting the ball but the Dodgers are countering with Tyler Anderson who has been elite all season and has been saddled with just two losses in 24 games. The 90-win Dodgers are better than they were a season ago when they finished with 106 wins.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have 90 wins.
— Starting 9 (@Starting9) August 31, 2022
Before September
And the season started a week late pic.twitter.com/cx9catWMz4
The Dodgers opened as +115 dogs but steam has pushed that to a very long +145 which I feel is at least 15 points too long. The books' opening line of LAD +115 seems more on point and the only reason for the movement is deGrom. However, he did look mortal in two starts vs. an Atlanta lineup that closely resembles that of the Dodgers.
In those two starts vs. the Braves — one at home and one on the road — deGrom gave up five earned runs over 12 1-3 innings. When healthy, he is the best pitcher in baseball but he also has to face the best offense in 2022 and is still struggling to get some run support with the Mets scoring just 12 runs over his five starts.
Not priced into this moneyline is the availability of the L.A. bullpen. Dave Roberts had just four available relievers yesterday and two of them were called up that afternoon. Things will be back to normal today for Game 2 of the three-game set.
Over/Under analysis
One night after a closing total of 8.5, tonight’s game opened at 7 and immediately got bet down to 6.5 and leans slightly to the Over.
Much like the ML, the total has moved a full two runs from game to game due to deGrom mostly. In his five starts this season, he has seen a closing total of 7 or lower four times with the one exception being his season debut. He is 0-4-1 O/U on the season.
Anderson has also been profitable to the Under this season with a 10-12 O/U record despite being backed by a historic offense. His 1.05 WHIP is a Top-20 mark in baseball and his great command should keep the bases less crowded tonight.
Looking at the weather and conditions, Citi Field is playing pitcher-friendly today with modest temperature in the high-70s and low humidity. The park already ranked in the Top 10 in run suppression and is more or less playing to its average park projections today.
At 53-65-10 O/U, the Dodgers are the league’s fourth-best Under team on the season (55.1%) while the Mets have been slightly profitable to the Over at home with a 32-29-3 O/U mark at Citi Field.
Dodgers vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Wednesday, August 31, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA, SNY
Starting pitchers
Tyler Anderson (13-2, 2.69 ERA): Projections have expected Tyler Anderson to falter all season and the left-hander has proved them all wrong. The lefty has been stellar all season and even better of late with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven starts. The Dodgers are 19-5 SU when he starts and the lefty blanked the Mets over six innings of three-hit ball the only time he saw them back in June.
Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.15 ERA): deGrom has some serious respect from oddsmakers as he's made the Dodgers the longest underdogs they've been all year vs. a pitcher who is 13-2 in Tyler Anderson. Since his return, the New York right-hander has 46 punchouts to just two walks over 29+ innings with a .155 OBP against. The Braves did take him for five runs over two starts but he is the reason this is a sub-7 total.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 47-20 SU in the last 67 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.
