Dodgers vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Grin and Polar Bear It

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to stay atop the NL West as they visit Citi Field following the All-Star Break for a three-game set with the New York Mets, who sit fourth in the NL East. Justin Verlander is a slight +100 home dog vs. Julio Urias in the MLB odds, with a total of 8.5. 

With rain a serious issue, Urias making just his third start since returning from injury, and the Dodgers’ weakness in their middle-inning pitching, should bettors be backing the home dogs tonight?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Mets for Friday, July 14.

Dodgers vs Mets odds

Dodgers vs Mets predictions

The New York Mets’ offense hasn’t played to its potential through 90 games, and Pete Alonso is part of the problem, as he's hitting just .211. But the All-Star should put in a much better performance in the second half, especially against a lefty in Julio Urias who could give way to a weak L.A. middle relief stable tonight.

Alonso has 23% of the team’s home runs, 16% of the RBI, and an insanely low BABIP at .186. That last number is bound to positively regress, and could start today if the Mets can dig into the L.A. bullpen.

Urias hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in five straight starts, and that could lead to some innings for the middle relief of the Dodgers. That's good news for the New York hitters, as L.A. currently has five middle relievers with an ERA above 5.00. The projected rain could also bring in the L.A. bullpen earlier than normal.

Alonso’s Over 0.5 home runs at +430 is showing great +EV, but so is his O1.5 H+R+RBI at -110 at DraftKings. THE BAT is projecting 2.3 total H/R/RBI, where the -110 line is implying roughly 1.45. 

Brighter days are coming for Alonso and that .211 average. A much better second half could start today with the help of some rain and a short-leashed starter in Urias. 

My best bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-110 at DraftKings) 

Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay

Alonso Over 1.5 total bases

Mets moneyline

Urias Over 4.5 hits

+475 at bet365

I prefer to do my SGPs at bet365, as the hold is much better than most books, meaning bettors get a much better multiplier when adding correlated/noncorrelated plays.

I'm already backing Alonso, and considering 53% of his hits are going for extra bases, getting his Over 1.5 bases at +155 is solid in terms of value and price. His sub-.200 BABIP is very difficult to maintain. 

I think the Mets on the moneyline is the right side, and the market agrees with me as it opened at +105. The middle-inning advantage belongs to the home side. 

Urias is projected for 5.17 hits, per THE BAT, so it's a high win% play that correlates to the Mets moneyline play. It's a heavily correlated SGP, which is why I'm losing 300 points of true odds. But this same SGP is +400 at DraftKings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Dodgers took a four-game winning streak into the break, and now are tied with the Diamondbacks for the division lead in the NL West. Tonight, they’ll open a three-game set vs. the 42-48 Mets, who took a dreadful 7-19 SU June record into a July where they went 6-2 SU before the break. 

The Mets took two of three at Dodger Stadium in mid-April and opened as +105 home dogs before moving to even money at around 10:30 a.m. ET. 

There were some inconsistencies with the opening total, as Pinnacle and DraftKings opened at 7.5, bet365 opened at 8, while most books opened at 8.5, where it currently stands.

With no big offensive injuries and a very neutral starting pitching matchup, the biggest factor in this game will be the weather.

From Kevin Roth for RotoGrinders: “As I write this, models are showing a large storm complex moving into NY around game time. If that is accurate, it would be problematic. That outcome however is not at all 'locked in,' things will change.”

It’s tough to gauge the unpredictable weather, but if either team were to lose their starter and had to rely on their middle-inning relief, the Mets would have the edge. Currently, all five of the Dodgers’ middle relievers have an ERA north of 5.00. Outside of Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, and Caleb Ferguson, this is not a good bullpen.

Urias will also be making just his third start after missing six weeks with a hamstring injury. He threw 88 pitches in his last start and hasn’t hit the 90-pitch mark in five straight starts. He’s a short-leashed pitcher who could give way to a weak middle-inning bullpen earlier than expected. His total out market sits at 16.5 and has a little value on the Under at +110 or better, with THE BAT projecting 90 pitches and 16.8 total outs.

With some rain concerns that could favor the Mets and getting Verlander (who has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 12 starts) at plus money, the Mets on the moneyline is the side that I like today and am playing to even money.

Trend to know

The New York Mets have hit the moneyline in six of their last eight games (+4.20 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets

Dodgers vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (6-5, 4.76 ERA): Urias will be making his third start since a hamstring injury shut him down for six weeks. The lefty brings a 63:14 K/BB ratio over 63-plus innings and a 17.7% HR/FB rate, which is 7.7 points higher than last year. His expected metrics are better than his actual numbers (ERA/FIP) and the Dodgers are 7-5 SU when he starts. THE BAT projects 90 pitches, 16.8 outs, 4.71 strikeouts, and 2.63 earned runs.  

Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.60 ERA): Verlander has brought a 4.85 ERA down to 3.60 over his last five starts, where he’s allowed just seven runs over 31 innings with 26 hits. He’s given up just a single home run over that stretch and the Mets are 5-7 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 98 pitches, 17.9 outs, 6.07 strikeouts, and 2.86 earned runs. 

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Weather

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