The second installment of this three-game series gets underway Saturday with the NL East’s New York Mets hosting the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers.
Los Angeles dominated the opening game of this series with a 6-0 victory, but they are underdogs in the MLB odds for tonight's tilt.
Will the Dodgers take care of business once again, or can the Mets enact their revenge at Citi Field? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Mets on Saturday, July 15.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
Dodgers vs Mets predictions
Right-hander Tony Gonsolin is slated to take the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers in this matchup, and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 13 starts this season, Gonsolin possesses a 3.86 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
Those certainly are not the worst surface-level stats in the world, but his underlying metrics are more concerning. Currently, Gonsolin ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Specifically, we are going to fade the right-hander in the strikeout department. Entering Saturday, he ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 3.5 at FanDuel. It has been a lackluster season for the Mets, who have struggled at the plate.
With that said, the one thing that this team does well is avoid the punchout. When facing right-handed pitching this season, New York ranks fourth in the league in K%.
Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this year. This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against Gonsolin, especially considering that he has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in two of his past three starts.
My best bet: Gonsolin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay
Gonsolin Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Over 9
Mets moneyline
This same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let us look at the other two.
Gonsolin should once again be a good fade candidate, and while the Mets’ lineup has been underwhelming given the pre-season expectations, it still hovers right around the league average in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs. On the other side, the Dodgers once again possess one of the best lineups in baseball.
Currently, Los Angeles ranks in the Top 5 of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs. No matter who the opposing pitcher is, the Dodgers will cross the plate at least a couple of times.
With that in mind, the damage could be limited considering that right-hander Kodai Senga is slated to take the mound for New York. Through 16 starts this season, he is 7-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
Yes, those numbers are very similar to Gonsolin’s, but Senga’s underlying metrics are much stronger. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 73rd percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
It would not be shocking if Senga limits the Dodgers’ bats, and we could see something along the lines of a 6-4 or 7-3 Mets win on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dodgers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened at a pick ‘em before New York was bet up to its current price of -116. This small movement makes sense, considering that oddsmakers may have not initially given Senga the amount of credit he deserves.
Meanwhile, despite Gonsolin coming off a career-year, he has not lived up to that performance in 2023. That brings us to the total, which opened at nine and has stayed at that number.
I would not expect this to move in either direction, given that the Dodgers’ lineup can explode at any time but are facing a competent pitcher in Senga. On the other hand, an average Mets lineup is facing a guy primed for further regression on the mound.
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Trend to know
Gonsolin has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in two of his past three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets
Dodgers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, July 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.86 ERA): Despite coming off a career-year, Gonsolin has had an un-noteworthy 2023. His underlying metrics suggest that even further regression is imminent, given that he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. Certainly not a strikeout savant, the right-hander also ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.31 ERA): The 30-year-old rookie for New York notched an All-Star nod in his first MLB season. His underlying metrics suggest that he will not slow down anytime soon, given that he ranks in the 73rd percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%. Additionally, nobody on this Los Angeles has faced Senga prior to Saturday, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.
