The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will play the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field this afternoon.
The first two games of this series proved to be low-scoring nail-biters, with the Dodgers prevailing 4-3 in the Tuesday opener and the Mets answering back with a 2-1 triumph on Wednesday.
Will it be more of the same on Thursday? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Mets on Thursday, September 1.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as -144 consensus favorites, but have dipped down to as low as -130 as of Thursday morning. The total was initially listed at 8.0, but action on the Under has caused that figure to drop to 7.5 just about everywhere.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Dodgers vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 9/1/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Dodgers vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA, SNY
Dodgers vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.64 ERA): Kershaw makes his first start since suffering a back injury on Aug. 4. The great southpaw had a rocky start to the second half, producing a 5.27 ERA over 13 2-3 innings. However, he has long been a thorn in the Mets' side, going 10-0 in 15 regular-season starts against them with a 2.19 ERA.
Chris Bassitt (11-7, 3.34 ERA): Bassitt is fresh off an outstanding month of August in which he authored a 1.62 ERA. If you remove the sixth inning of his last start where he allowed three earned runs to the Rockies, that figure drops to 0.84. Bassitt recorded a quality start (six innings, three earned runs) in his lone prior start against L.A. this season on June 3.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last eight home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets
Dodgers vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Clayton Kershaw has had the Mets’ number throughout his career, so taking the Dodgers as fairly modest road favorites seems like the right play.
New York has never handed Kershaw the loss in 15 prior regular-season meetings, and he owns a 2.19 ERA in that sample. There’s not much hope for improvement with this year’s version of the Mets, as they’re 19th in team batting average against lefties (.242) in 2022.
Darin Ruf — whom the Mets brought in at the deadline to help with their struggles against lefties — is 2-for-17 (.118) lifetime against Kershaw. Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar — both well-versed with Kershaw after seeing him in the NL West — are a combined 8-for-38 (.211) all-time against him.
The saving grace for the Amazins is that Kershaw — who owns a 2.64 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP on the year — is unlikely to pitch deep into this one fresh off an extended stint on the IL. But the L.A. bullpen is third in the majors by ERA (2.34) over the last two weeks, so this unit is more than capable of picking up the slack.
Chris Bassitt has been a tough nut to crack on the mound for the Mets, but the Rockies proved it was possible with a three-run sixth inning on Friday. If any lineup can possibly chase Bassitt early, it’s the Dodgers, which boasts an MLB-best 5.36 runs per game.
Justin Turner is 3-for-6 lifetime with a double against Bassitt, and while that’s a small sample size, his .863 OPS with 24 RBI against the Mets over 150 at-bats isn’t. He’s also fresh off a month of August in which he hit .314 with 12 RBI.
The Dodgers are hard to bet against considering they’re 45-10 in their last 55 overall. The Mets are also 1-4 in their last five games against left-handed starters, making the decision even easier.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-130 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
These pitching staffs have proved difficult to solve, and that trend should continue on Thursday afternoon with the shadows from the setting sun working toward the hitter’s disadvantage as the game goes on.
Kershaw should stymie the New York offense before setting things up for a well-rested Dodgers bullpen that used only Jake Reed in relief on Wednesday. Caleb Ferguson (1.16 ERA) and Alex Vesia (2.49 ERA) are southpaws who can continue to give the Mets’ lineup fits.
Bassitt has excelled at giving the Mets length in his starts this season, averaging 6.17 innings per start. At home, that figure jumps to 6.54.
Though the Amazins rank second by bullpen ERA over the last two weeks (2.17), manager Buck Showalter would probably still like to avoid his middle-inning relievers and pave as smooth a road to closer Edwin Diaz (29 saves) as possible.
A few trends suggest the Under is the way to go, starting with these teams going 6-2-1 to the Under over their last nine meetings. The Under is also 6-0 in the Mets’ last six games against left-handed starters and 4-1 in Los Angeles' last five games overall.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at Unibet)
Best bet
Neither the Dodgers nor the Mets are in a great rhythm offensively, with L.A. plating four or fewer runs in four of their last five games and the Mets doing the same in seven of their last eight. It’s no wonder the first two games of this series went below the total.
Kershaw frequently gives New York’s lineup a headache, and Bassitt has been almost untouchable over his last few outings. These starters should continue to trade zeroes and set up their bullpens well.
Under bettors have some wiggle room with the line resting at 7.5 and should take full advantage.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 at Unibet)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Dodgers vs. Mets picks, you could win $23.78on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
