Two teams that have been struggling to find wins lately will face off at Citi Field as the New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday afternoon.
The last time these teams faced off, New York scored a stunning series win by taking two of three in L.A. I’ll break down whether history will repeat itself in my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks below.
Dodgers vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It’s hard to imagine this Los Angeles Dodgers team losing five games in a row — especially to the Reds and Diamondbacks — but it’s hardly time to panic. The Dodgers still have a 5.5-game lead in the NL West and the second-best run differential in the NL. More importantly for today, this is a much better team than the New York Mets.
New York hasn’t won a series since sweeping the Cardinals over two games in early May. Overall, the Mets have gone just 7-16 in May, have an ailing rotation, and haven’t found any consistency in their lineup.
Today, New York will turn the ball over to Tylor Megill, who has been reasonably good in his first two starts of the season, but his career numbers tell the story of a pitcher who has struggled to be so much as competitive at the MLB level.
The 28-year-old has a 4.59 career FIP with a 1.414 WHIP and has struggled with his control, giving up 3.4 walks per nine innings. He’s also been vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career.
Now the Mets are turning to Megill to try and slow down a Dodgers lineup that is scoring 4.91 runs per game this season. Sure, the L.A. lineup hasn’t been outstanding during the recent losing streak, but the long-term trends are just fine, with Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani both making their cases as the best hitter in baseball for 2024.
Ohtani has a 1.024 OPS this season, while Betts isn’t far behind at .974. That’s not to mention three other starters — Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez — who are all posting OPS numbers over .800.
The Dodgers will start Gavin Stone today. Stone had a rough outing against the Diamondbacks in his last start, but like Los Angeles overall, we have to look a little deeper to see the real story. Before allowing four runs in six innings against Arizona, Stone had a stretch of six starts where he went 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA, during which the Dodgers won five of those six games.
We can overanalyze how these teams have struggled this past week, but the Dodgers are possibly the best team in baseball, while this stretch is much closer to expectations for the Mets. I expect L.A. to snap out of their recent funk against Megill and the Mets and cover the run line this afternoon.
Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Over 8.5
Shohei Ohtani to get a hit
The Dodgers offense should have a field day in New York this afternoon. That’s why I’m not only taking Los Angeles to cover the run line but also parlaying that with the Over in my SGP.
Both teams have trended slightly toward the Over this year, and the pitching matchup should allow both lineups to generate some offense. I’ll also take Ohtani to get a hit this afternoon, something he’s done in five of his last seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
Dodgers vs Mets live odds
Dodgers vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+120) | New York +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -140 | New York +120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as -148 favorites for this afternoon’s game. As of Monday morning, -145 is the best number available for Los Angeles, while you can get +130 on the Mets.
- The Mets have lost more than 8.5 units for bettors on the moneyline this year, while the Dodgers have come up short by 7.5 units.
- Today’s total was set at 8.5 runs and has remained at that number. The Over is the favorite at -115, while you can find +100 on the Over.
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Dodgers vs Mets trend
The Dodgers are 4-1 in Gavin Stone's last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.
Dodgers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 5-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA, SNY |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (4-2, 3.60 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (0-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries
Dodgers vs Mets weather
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