The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to complete a three-game sweep as they visit the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday afternoon.
The Dodgers (34-22) are once again road favorites in the MLB odds against the Mets (22-31), who have dropped seven of their last eight games.
James Paxton will try to keep up his winning ways against David Peterson, whom New York has just recalled from the minors. I’ll break down the matchup in my free Dodgers vs Mets predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 29.
Dodgers vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (+102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
This afternoon’s pitching matchup may not feature a pair of Cy Young odds contenders, but both starters are capable of delivering solid outings, especially at a pitchers’ park like Citi Field.
James Paxton is off to an excellent start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, going 5-0 with a 3.49 ERA over his first nine appearances. There are serious concerns over his control right now, as he’s walking and striking out the same number of batters per nine innings (5.1). But those numbers shouldn’t be major factors today, as the New York Mets are near the bottom of the league in both walks and strikeouts.
New York puts the ball in play, and that’s where Paxton has been most successful this season. He’s holding opponents to a .392 slugging percentage on the season, one of the better numbers of his career, and his hard-hit percentage against (41.1%) is right in line with his career average. Even if Paxton has been a little fortunate to start the year, he shouldn’t need luck against a Mets lineup that is averaging just 3.13 runs per game over their last eight contests.
The Mets are countering with a pitcher who may invite even more skepticism: David Peterson, who has been with New York since he first reached the majors in 2020. Since then, Peterson has gone up and down between the majors and the minors, and started this year with a minor league rehab assignment after having hip surgery in the offseason.
Peterson struggled last year, putting up a 5.03 ERA in 111 innings of work, primarily as a starter. His 1.568 WHIP was by far the worst of his career, and – seemingly like every Mets starter – he had control problems, offering up more than four walks per nine innings.
Yet the Mets have always been fairly high on Peterson, and now the 28-year-old southpaw seems to have figured something out in his minor league stint. In 23 2/3 innings of work at various levels during his rehab period, Peterson allowed just three earned runs on 19 hits, striking out an impressive 35 batters while allowing just three walks.
If those numbers translate at all to the major league level, the Mets will be ecstatic, as they badly need help in their rotation right now. Peterson has never pitched like this in the minors before, so it does seem as though there’s a clear difference in 2024.
Between Peterson’s rehab performance, New York’s poor offense, and the low-scoring games these two teams have played to start the series, today’s total seems out of line with what we should expect. I’m taking the Under this afternoon.
Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Dodgers moneyline
Mookie Betts to get a hit
Along with the Under, I’ll take the Dodgers to win outright in my same-game parlay. The Dodgers are the better team here, and I have more confidence in Paxton than Peterson this afternoon.
Given that I have Los Angeles winning, I’ll also take Mookie Betts to collect at least one hit, something he’s done in six straight games and nine of his last 10 outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
Dodgers vs Mets live odds
Dodgers vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -123 | New York +113
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as a -123 favorite. The line has tightened slightly, with Los Angeles now available at -118, while you can find the Mets at +105.
- New York has dropped 10.5 units on the moneyline this season. The Dodgers are also letting bettors down, having lost 5.5 units this year.
- The total for this afternoon’s game has been set at 8.5. The Over is the favorite at -120, with the Under offered at +102.
- The Mets and Dodgers have hit the Under in the first two games of this series.
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Dodgers vs Mets trend
The Under is 5-1 in Los Angeles’ last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Mets.
Dodgers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
SNLA, SNY
|
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (5-0, 3.49 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries
Dodgers vs Mets weather
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