The San Diego Padres will host their first postseason game since 2020 when they welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to Petco Park on Friday for Game 3 of the NLDS.
The Dodgers jumped out to an early lead in the series with a 5-3 Game 1 win, but the Padres knotted things up with their own 5-3 victory in Game 2 on Wednesday. San Diego now holds home field advantage in the five-game series, as they will host the next two games.
The biggest question on Friday surrounds Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin, who is still working his way back from injury. We’ll examine Gonsolin and other betting insights in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on October 14.
Dodgers vs Padres best odds
Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions
When healthy, Tony Gonsolin has been among the best pitchers in baseball this year. The 28-year-old right-hander put up a 16-1 record with a 2.14 ERA, along with a stellar 0.875 WHIP. Gonsolin’s numbers could have been even more impressive had he not missed about six weeks with a right forearm strain.
The Dodgers gave Gonsolin one warmup start before the playoffs. He pitched on October 3 against the Colorado Rockies, going two innings and striking out three batters. Los Angeles will be looking to get more than that out of their starter on Friday, though it’s an open question just how far Gonsolin can go in his first postseason start.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has given some clues. While he acknowledged that fellow starter Dustin May is limited to four innings or 60 pitches, he told reporters that Gonsolin has built up to “upwards of 75 pitches.” Presuming that’s true, that suggests Los Angeles wants to get four or five innings out of Gonsolin in Game 3, with the potential for slightly more if he‘s efficient.
With a reasonable pitch limit, it’s surprising to see oddsmakers posting very low prop totals for Gonsolin on Friday. His main line strikeout totals range from 2.5 to 3.5, depending on the site.
As a reminder, Gonsolin just struck out three batters in a two-inning stint against the Rockies. That’s very telling, as Colorado and San Diego profile very similarly when it comes to strikeout numbers. The Rockies struck out 8.21 times per game in the regular season, with the Padres (8.27) posting only slightly more strikeouts.
The Padres aren’t any better in this regard against righties. San Diego struck out in 22% of its plate appearances against righthanded pitchers, compared to 20.4% against lefties. While the Padres aren’t a high strikeout team overall, they start several batters who struck out over 100 times this year, including Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, and Jurickson Profar.
Gonsolin may not be an elite strikeout pitcher, but in this day and age, everyone gets some swings and misses. He’s averaging 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and has consistently put up solid strikeout numbers this year even while averaging just 5.4 innings per start. In his two starts against San Diego this year, Gonsolin struck out 14 batters in 12.2 innings.
I expect to get a minimum of four innings out of Gonsolin tonight, with potential upside for more. With that volume, Gonsolin should project to strike out four or more Padres. I’m taking Gonsolin’s strikeout prop at Over 3.5, with generous odds available from several sportsbooks.
My best bet: Tony Gonsolin Over 3.5 strikeouts (+120)
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Dodgers vs Padres NLDS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Dodgers |
-105 |
 San Diego Padres |
-115 |
Dodgers vs Padres moneyline analysis
The Dodgers opened Game 3 as the favorite, with most sites listing Los Angeles at around -130. There’s been some movement towards San Diego over the past day, however, and you can now get the Dodgers at -120 or better at many sites.
If the Dodgers can get a representative performance out of Gonsolin, they should be on their way to a 2-1 lead in the series. Los Angeles went 19-5 in Gonsolin’s starts this year, and he went 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA against the Padres during the regular season.
The tight moneyline reflects the uncertainty over just how much Gonsolin will pitch. As I pointed out in my analysis above, however, it does look like the Dodgers expect to get at least a few innings out of him. Since Gonsolin has never been a pitcher to regularly go deep into games anyway, his pitch limit may not be as much of a factor as it would be for some starters.
The Padres are at home, and are starting a solid pitcher in their own right in Blake Snell. In three starts against Los Angeles this year, Snell enjoyed two strong outings, though the Dodgers did touch him up for five runs in four innings on September 10 in San Diego.
Given my confidence that Gonsolin will pitch at least four innings, I like the Dodgers to win tonight. I wouldn’t pay too much to back them, though. If you can get Los Angeles at -120 or better, it’s worth betting the Dodgers straight up in Game 3.
Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under analysis
The total in this game has remained relatively steady, bouncing between 7.5 and 7 at various sites throughout the last day. There are strong cases to be made for both the Over and Under, depending on the exact odds you can get on the total you want.
As we’ve already talked about, Gonsolin and Snell are both capable pitchers who have thrown well against their Game 3 opponents. With Thursday off, both teams will also have fully refreshed bullpens to throw on Friday, meaning we’ll see the best arms on each staff if this remains a competitive matchup.
On the other hand, you might already know that both of these teams can score. The Dodgers led the majors with 5.21 runs per game this season, while the Padres were no slouches themselves (4.37). Gonsolin may not last long, and Snell struggled in his last start, going just 3.1 innings against the New York Mets in the National League Wild Card Series.
While I won’t be betting the total here, I’m inclined to slightly favor the Under at 7.5 runs. This will be a tightly-played game, and if we ignore the noise, we can expect strong performances out of both starters. Throw in the rested bullpens, and this game leans toward the Under.
Dodgers vs Padres trend to know
Tony Gonsolin has struck out at least four batters in 17 of his last 21 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, October 14, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
Starting pitchers
Tony Gonsolin (16-1, 2.14 ERA): Gonsolin has impressed since his rookie season in 2019, but he truly emerged as a frontline starter in 2022. The 28-year-old made his first All-Star Game, and was poised for a 20-win season before hitting the injured list with a right forearm strain in late August.
In preparation for the postseason, Gonsolin returned to the starting rotation on October 3 against the Rockies. He threw just two innings, giving up one run on three hits while striking out three batters in what was essentially a warmup appearance. Gonsolin went 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA over 12.2 innings against the Padres this year.
Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA): While Snell has never recaptured the magic of his 2018 Cy Young Award season, he continues to put up solid numbers every year. In his second season with the Padres, Snell posted a 2.80 FIP while striking out 12 batters per nine innings.
Snell went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA over 14 innings in three innings against the Dodgers this season. He most recently pitched against the Mets in the National League Wild Card Series, allowing two runs on four hits and six walks over 3.1 innings.
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
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Dodgers vs Padres weather
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