Dodgers vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Gonsolin Dominates Swing-Heavy Chicago

It's Round 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox. Last night had a playoff game feel with dual no-hitters through four innings. But, eventually, Chicago got to Los Angeles and blanked it for a 4-0 win to take the first game of this series.

L.A. is definitely in a slump right now, and we're all just waiting to see how long it takes for the team's immense talent to snap out of it. Chicago was able to get a much-needed win, as it gained a game back from Minnesota, and now has a chance to get back to .500 baseball tonight.

Read our MLB betting picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. White Sox to see which squad we're back tonight.

Dodgers vs White Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds for this meeting were released last night, with Los Angeles opening up as a -165 favorite. Since then, it has taken a little money and have fallen to as high as -170 in some spots. Chicago is returning around a +155 underdog in most shops. The total opened up at 8.5 and has stayed there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Dodgers vs White Sox predictions

• Prediction: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-122)
• Prediction: Dodgers F5 TT Over 2.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Gonsolin Under 4.5 hits allowed (-116)

Picks made on 6/8/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Dodgers vs White Sox game info

• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, June 8, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NBCS-CHI

Dodgers vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tony Gonsolin (6-0, 1.59 ERA): What a start to the season for Gonsolin. He's been terrific all year, and it's only gotten better as of late, coming off a scoreless, six-inning outing against the Mets. That proceeded a month where he saw just over 28 innings of work and gave up six earned runs. That's Cy Young caliber stuff. Gonsolin has been the king of soft contact. His hard-hit rate ranks him eighth in all of baseball among pitchers, and there's simply not much to nitpick around Gonsolin's game right now. His fastball, split-finger combo has been deadly.

Johnny Cueto (0-2, 2.92 ERA): As a lifelong member of the Johnny Cueto fan club, I've enjoyed seeing him have one of the better starts to a season that he's had — but it hasn't come without some ups and downs. In his past two starts, Cueto has been roughed up. His last start against the Blue Jays could have been worse than it already was, surrendering three earned runs on seven hits through six innings. In the start before? Cueto gave up five earned runs through six. This came on the heels of back-to-back scoreless starts. So which Cueto will we get today?

Weather

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Key injuries

Dodgers: Max Muncy 1B (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Out).
White Sox: Tim Anderson SS (Out), Eljoy Jimenez LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Dodgers are 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. White Sox

Dodgers vs White Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

Yesterday, I saw Dodger blue based on some historical trends. But unfortunately, that didn't work out so well. So, naturally, I'll try it again. 

Yesterday also marked the 27th time L.A. had been shut out in the last five seasons. I reviewed all 29 games following those shutouts this morning and noticed something, the Dodgers usually respond. L.A. is 19-6 since 2017 after being shut out, and averages 4.5 runs the game after. So I'm building my handicap partially around that and backing them to bounce back today. 

Is this an incredibly large sample size? Yes, it absolutely is. But barring the COVID-19 shortened season, this team has won 92 games or more every year since 2018, showing just how dominant it has been in this timeframe — especially with the amount of talent that has come and gone in the lineup.

Now that we've got the trends, let's talk about the pitching matchup because it is a decisive edge for the Dodgers. 

Gonsolin has been incredible. When you try to nitpick his game, the only thing you come away with is wanting to see more fastball velocity. Outside of that, I can't find much. He has been at his best against teams with high swing and chase rates, and he's given up one combined earned run in such matchups this season.

His best performance was probably against the Braves, where he went six innings and gave up one hit with no runs. Something they have in common with the White Sox? They both swing a lot. The Sox rank fifth in swing rank and the Braves rank sixth. Chicago ranks third in chase rate and Atlanta ranks fifth. I'm expecting a similar performance from Gonsolin that we got against the Braves.

I'm going to ignore the bullpens here and play up a few angles. One of those is the Dodgers getting off to a hot start after being shut out. The other is the White Sox struggling early against Gonsolin, given it's the first time virtually any of their batters have seen him. 

Prediction: Dodgers first five -0.5 (-122 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I suppose I will continue backing this Dodger team during this slump until they snap out of it. There's just too much talent for them to be down too long, so I'm going to take a lot at their first-five team total and again look to take advantage of the post-shutout bounce back. 

First off, the trends that back this angle. When I was breaking down the 20 or so games, L.A. has been shut out, and what happened after, I was struck by how quickly it responded in the forthcoming match. In nearly 50% of the games, the Dodgers scored in the first inning, a pretty sizable margin when you consider their first inning moneyline being listed at around +250.

In addition, they scored multiple runs in almost 75% of those games through the first five innings. So again, they are pretty good at responding in these spots. Secondly, the pitching matchup here is a nice one, and the Dodgers hitters should favor well. 

It's as simple as Cueto gives up a lot of hard contacts, and L.A. does an excellent job punishing pitchers who do that. Cueto ranks in the bottom 25% among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rank. Bats like Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner may be a little cold lately, but that makes them all the more dangerous to me.

A Dodger explosion is happening soon. The last time they were held scoreless (May 25), they responded the next game with 14 runs, with six runs coming in the first five innings. This feels like the right time. 

Prediction: Dodgers first-five team total Over 2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Today's best bet will be centered around what we discussed at the onset. Again, this is a spot where Gonsolin excels, so we'll back him to do just that at the plate tonight. 

Gonsolin has made six starts this season and gave up Over 4.5 hits just once, coming against the Rockies at Coors Field. I'm simply going to write that off as Coors Field being Coors Field. But, beating that same drum, Gonsolin is at his best when he gets batters swinging and chasing. The White Sox do that more than most teams, making this handicap simple for me.

I'm rolling with Gonsolin Under 4.5 hits allowed today. I love the matchup for him, and even if the Dodgers' struggle continues, it's unlikely to come at the expense of their starting pitcher. 

Pick: Gonsolin Under 4.5 hits allowed (-116)

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