The Los Angeles Dodgers are red hot, winning four straight games following the All-Star Break. They’ll look to keep the good vibes going in Game 2 of their four-game series with the visiting San Francisco Giants on July 23.
With the faltering Jordan Hicks on the mound for San Francisco, my Giants vs. Dodgers predictions are eyeing Freddie Freeman's total bases market. Find out more in my MLB picks ahead.
Giants vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The decision to move Jordan Hicks to the rotation paid off early dividends for the San Francisco Giants, but the experiment is now seeing diminishing returns. After posting a 3.09 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in March and April, the RHP's numbers have been on the rise ever since.
He became mortal in May (4.68 FIP, 1.33 WHIP), mighty hittable in June (5.03, 1.79 WHIP), and a pinata in July (5.72 FIP, 2.04 WHIP). It probably wasn’t a good sign he was scratched from his last start on Sunday, and it’s likely this is his last go-around in the rotation now that rotational help is on the way via Robbie Ray.
It’s a bit difficult to guess Hicks’ workload in this contest, but it’s just his second start in 20 days, and it would seem as though Bob Melvin wants to get his money’s worth. With Ray set to make his debut tomorrow and likely working on a pitch count, it would be difficult for Melvin to go to the pen earlier than normal for a Hicks start.
The 27-year-old has been ineffective against left-handed hitters this season, and that’s a worrisome prospect against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Ohtani has obliterated RHP (207 wRC+, .464 wOBA, .386 ISO), while Freeman isn’t far behind (185 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .264 ISO).
So, what’s the best way to fade Hicks in this matchup? Given the workload uncertainty and the fact L.A.’s bottom of the order has been unreliable against RHP, I’m going to stick to what we know and play Freddie.
We know Freeman has been a menace against righties at home, and I like the value of his odds to record Over 1.5 total bases at +140 odds. Ohtani’s odds are +105, and their numbers aren’t far off from one another, so I see more value with Freddie.
This is a terrific matchup against Hicks, and even if Melvin opts to go to the pen early, the San Francisco Giants are beatable in relief with a 4.39 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. As a cherry on top, the weather report is favorable for offense, with winds of 8.1 mph blowing out to right field throughout the game.
Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Jordan Hicks Over 2.5 walks
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Hicks has surrendered multiple walks in five of his last seven starts. It’s not a new idea he struggles with his command — among 113 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings, Hicks ranks 107th in Location+ (96).
That’s... not great news against a Dodgers lineup sporting the league’s highest walk rate (10.1%) against RHP.
Freeman isn’t the only L.A. bat with enticing odds to dole out damage in a favorable matchup. Ohtani is averaging 2.2 total bases in his last 10 games and has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last seven outings, so it’s hard not to like his chances against a faltering Hicks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers live odds
Giants vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-185) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +120 | Los Angeles -140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Giants vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles has won six straight home games against these rivals.
- San Francisco has been miserable on the road (20-31), while Los Angeles has been tough to beat at home (32-19).
- Neither team has had much success recently with their respective starting pitchers on the mound. San Francisco is 1-5 in Hicks’ last six starts, while the Dodgers are 1-5 in rookie Landon Knack’s last six outings.
- The Giants have trended to the Over with Hicks on the bump, going 9-3 O/U across his last 12 starts.
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Giants vs Dodgers trend
Freddie Freeman has recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last seven home games against a RHP. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, SportsNet-LA |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Jordan Hicks (4-6, 3.79 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (1-2, 3.23 ERA) |
Giants vs Dodgers latest injuries
Giants vs Dodgers weather
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