The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres wrap up a three-game set at Petco Park on Thursday afternoon.
The Giants have the best record in the majors and will look to sweep the Padres, who are falling out of the Wild Card picture. MLB betting lines have the Giants installed as slim -120 away favorites with the Over/Under at 8.
Here are our best free Giants vs. Padres picks and predictions for Thursday, September 23, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Giants vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Thursday, September 23, 2021
• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSD
Giants vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Giants vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb (10-3, 2.79 ERA): The 24-year-old is having an outstanding season with the Giants, pitching to a 1.10 WHIP and holding opponents to a batting average of .231 across 132 1-3 innings. Webb is fresh off a strong start against the Braves where he allowed two runs and fanned nine batters in seven innings.
Yu Darvish (8-10, 4.13 ERA): The five-time All-Star was brought in to be an ace, and midway through the season he was living up to that billing, pitching to a 2.44 ERA in 16 starts through the end of June. Then the wheels fell off, and in 12 starts since the start of July, he has allowed a 6.79 ERA. That said, he is coming off an excellent outing against the Cardinals where he scattered three hits through seven scoreless innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Giants: Alex Dickerson LF (Out).
Padres: None.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 41-15 in their last 56 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
The San Francisco Giants have the best record in the majors at 99-53 and they aren't taking their foot off the pedal, winning four of their last five games.
The Padres came into this season with high expectations, but after battling for a postseason spot for much of the year have lost 10 of their last 12 contests. They now sit six games behind the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the NL with just 11 games left in the season.
The Padres need to start winning (and pray for some losses for the Cardinals, Reds, and Phillies) if they want to see the postseason, but it won't be easy to get the W this afternoon. Yu Darvish will take to the hill for San Diego and the right-hander has struggled lately, allowing at least four earned runs in eight of his last 12 starts, with the Friars losing nine of those games.
The Giants will respond with right-hander Logan Webb. Webb allowed five runs to the Cubs last week and gave up three runs at Coors Field in his start before that, but those are the only two starts in his last 17 where he has allowed more than two runs. The Giants have gone an incredible 16-1 in those 17 starts and Webb has a 2.31 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP over that span.
The Giants also have a significant advantage at the plate. Not only do they rank fourth in the majors with an OPS of .772 this year, but they have also upped that to an NL-best .865 over the last 15 days. The Friars rank 15th in OPS at .724 and have seen that number drop to .698 over the last 15 days.
With the Padres just 3-8 in their last 11 games at home and the Giants 41-15 in their previous 56 contests on the road, don't hesitate to grab San Fran at close to a pick'em price.
PREDICTION: ML San Francisco (-117)
Over/Under pick
We mentioned Darvish's poor form over the last few months, and one of those ugly outings came against San Francisco just 10 days ago. Darvish was rocked in that contest, surrendering four dingers and eight runs in four innings.
The Giants have been productive at the plate all season, which is remarkable when you consider that sluggers like Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, and Buster Posey have been battling injuries. Now their entire lineup is at full strength and has looked fantastic, plating 6.81 runs per game over the last 16 contests.
Despite getting strong performances from their starters and bullpen, the Giants have cashed the Over in eight of their last 11 games.
Over trends also abound for the Padres, who are 6-1 O/U in their last seven and in the head-to-head, with the Over going 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these NL West rivals. Expect the Over to hit again.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-105)
Giants vs Padres betting card
- ML San Francisco (-117)
- Over 7.5 (-105)
Picks made on 9/23/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET
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