The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants open a pivotal three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night.
The Phillies and Giants are battling over postseason positioning with Philly holding the top wild-card spot in the National League race leading San Francisco by only a half game.
If the Phillies want another deep postseason run, they’ll need more from Aaron Nola who gets the ball tonight. Scott Alexander gets the start for the Giants, with Sean Manaea the likely “bulk” guy. Can Nola live up to the billing with a -140 price tag, or will Philadelphia have to rely on their lineup to get the job done?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in MLB pick and predictions Giants vs. Phillies.
Giants vs Phillies odds
Giants vs Phillies predictions
The way Aaron Nola has been pitching lately, the Phillies might need their offense to carry them in this one. Luckily, their deep lineup looks like it is starting to hit its stride and is starting to hit the way most expected heading into the season. That includes slugger Nick Castellanos.
The Philadelphia Phillies right-fielder has been locked in at the dish since the start of August. Castellanos is hitting .299 with a .927 OPS over his 18 games with four doubles and seven home runs, and I really like his chances of swinging a hot stick in this one.
The San Francisco Giants hand the ball to Scott Alexander, who will work as an opener tonight. This will be the seventh time he has opened a game this season, and honestly, he’s been much better when he’s coming out of the bullpen. The left-hander has an 8.44 ERA as a starter and a 3.34 ERA as a reliever.
Alexander will then likely hand the ball off to fellow southpaw Sean Manaea to be the “bulk” guy in this game. Manaea has been solid, if unspectacular, this season for San Francisco. The left-hander is pitching to a 4.29 expected ERA while giving up a .242 expected batting average, and .404 expected slugging percentage.
Trotting out multiple left-handers isn’t a good plan vs. Castellanos.
The Phillies slugger is hitting .318 with a .900 OPS when facing southpaws this season. On top of that, if Manaea is the guy, Castellanos has his number. Castellanos is 5-7 with a double and two dingers vs. Manaea.
I’m taking Castellanos to have a big day at the dish and go Over 1.5 total bases at decent plus money. Something he has done in seven of his last 10 games.
My best bet: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
Giants vs Phillies same-game parlay
Castellanos Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5 full game total
Yes first inning run
Our same game parlay, as always, begins with our best bet which is of course, Nick Castellanos going Over 1.5 total bases. And we’re going to keep that theme of hitting going by adding the Over 8.5 for the full game total as well.
The Phillies lineup has been rolling since the start of August, ranking seventh in batting average, fourth in OPS and third in wRC+ over 18 games in that span, and should have success against Alexander and Manaea tonight. Additionally, Aaron Nola just hasn’t looked right this season and now owns a 4.58 ERA.
Finally, why not get that scoring started early? Alexander has allowed a first inning run in three of the six times he has opened a game this season and Nola has a 4.32 ERA in the first inning this season.
If all three hit, we walk away with a tidy +450 payday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Phillies opened this National League showdown as roughly -160 home favorites but it appears bettors don’t have much confidence in Aaron Nola, as they are now down near the -135 range.
Nola has not pitched up to his normal level this season and its been particularly rough of late. The right-hander is pitching to a 6.75 ERA and surrendering a .306 batting average and a .914 OPS over his last four starts.
That said, I still think that’s undervaluing him in this spot a bit. His expected ERA is still a respectable 3.87 and the expected batting average on his curveball and fastball are still excellent.
Also, there is no comparing these lineups at the moment. As I said above, the Phillies seem to be peaking at the right time, while the Giants have hit a bit of a slump. San Francisco ranks 29th in batting average, 28th in OPS and wRC+ since the start of August.
That’s enough to have me lean towards the home team at the lowered price.
When it comes to the total, it has stuck at the opening number of 8.5. While the Giants are struggling, like I said, something just hasn’t been right with Nola all year, and they should be able to do enough to send this one Over with the Phillies doing the heavy lifting when it comes to scoring.
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Trend to know
The Phillies have hit the first five innings team total Over in eight of their last 11 games at home for +4.79 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies
Giants vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, August 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Scott Alexander (6-2, 4.06 ERA): Alexander will serve as an opener for the Giants tonight. It will be the seventh time the left-hander has opened a game, but he has been far more effective as a reliever. He’s allowed five runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings as an opener.
Aaron Nola (10-8, 4.58 ERA): Nola just hasn’t looked right all season but it’s been particularly rough lately. The right-hander has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts, none of which have lasted more than 5 1/3 innings.
