The Toronto Blue Jays evened up the series with the Cleveland Guardians, winning 2-1 on Saturday afternoon. The two teams conclude the three-game series this afternoon.
The Under has hit twice, so look for the total of 7.5 to go in that direction again. Both teams are sending pitchers out with strong records, especially recently. Sunday could turn into quite the pitcher’s duel.
So, who is getting the decisive third game, Toronto or Cleveland? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Blue Jays on August 12.
Guardians vs Blue Jays odds
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The Blue Jays again opened as the favorite at -130 but jumped up to -145. The Guardians began at +110 and have gone as high as +128 at FanDuel. The total has stayed at 7.5 with the Over at -105 and the Under at -110.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 8/14/2022 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, August 14, 2022
• First pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, Sportsnet
Guardians vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Shane Bieber (7-6, 3.21 ERA): Bieber has been an important part of a resurging Cleveland starting rotation. Along with Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, Bieber has had victories in his last three starts. In his most recent outing, the 27-year-old right-hander allowed no runs on four hits and struck out eight in seven innings. The start before that he allowed two runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks, going six innings, allowing four hits, and striking out eight.
Kevin Gausman (8-8, 2.91 ERA): The 31-year-old righty was named Player of the Week by MLB and it’s easy to see why. Gausman had two outings that week and pitched shutout ball in both. In his most recent start last Sunday against the Minnesota Twins, he allowed six hits in six innings and struck out five.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings between the two in Toronto. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Blue Jays
Guardians vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Toronto snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday and could be poised to pick up its second consecutive victory on Sunday. The score of the first game was 8-0, with the second 2-1. Sunday’s finale should fall somewhere in between.
Both starting pitchers have faced each other once this season. On May 7, Bieber had the rougher outing, going just 3 1-3 innings and allowing seven runs on eight hits. Gausman went 6 1-3 innings, allowing one run on six hits and striking out five.
It was arguably Bieber’s worst performance of his career. He has faced the Blue Jays three other times and allowed six runs on 10 hits total. In those three other games, he has 25 strikeouts as opposed to four walks.
This game should come down to the offenses and who can get to Bieber or Gausman first.
Toronto has been struggling as of late. The team is second in batting average at .263, but over the last two weeks, its batting average is .237. They are fifth in runs and RBI in the majors, but the Blue Jays have scored just two runs in 17 innings and have 40 runs over 11 games.
Cleveland is eighth in batting average but 16th in runs and RBI.
One player that should have an impact is MVP favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He is currently on a 22-game hitting streak and has a career batting average against the Guardians of .264, with 14 hits and six runs.
Bieber isn’t going to get lit up like he did the first time he faced the Blue Jays, but Gausman should be more effective and gets the edge over Cleveland’s starter.
Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 (+148 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has hit both times in this series — which is almost unheard of at batter-friendly Rogers Centre. With the two starting pitchers performing the way that they have, there is no reason to think the Under of 7.5 won’t hit again.
Bieber and Gausman have been stingy with runs lately. Bieber has allowed just three in his last 20 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Gausman has a scoreless streak of 14 innings and has allowed 10 runs in four appearances in July.
The bullpen is a concern for both teams, however. The five primary relievers for the Guardians have surrendered 91 runs over the season — with the bullpen sporting a 3.81 ERA.
The Blue Jays' first five out of the bullpen have given up 88 runs and sport a 3.97 ERA. It doesn’t help that Tim Mayza is on the 15-day injured list.
If Bieber and Gausman can each pitch six to seven innings, the Under should be safe.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at WynnBet)
Best bet
Kevin Gausman has been red hot lately, being especially proficient in striking out other batters.
In his last two games, Gausman has struck out five and 10 hitters. In his four starts before that, the righty struck out 25 in 17 2-3 innings.
Cleveland leads the majors with the fewest strikeouts but still averages 6.9 whiffs a game. When Gausman faced them in May, he got five strikeouts.
With the way he is pitching, getting five strikeouts against the Guardians shouldn’t be an issue.
Kevin Gausman Prop Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-160 at DraftKings)
