The Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners begin a four-game series at T-Mobile Park on Thursday afternoon.
Cleveland has a 66-56 record and a four-game lead atop the AL Central, while the M's have an almost identical 67-57 record but sit 12.5 games behind Houston in the AL West. Seattle is currently in the final Wild Card spot as it looks to snap the longest MLB postseason drought.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Mariners on August 25.
Guardians vs Mariners odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Guardians installed as -125 road favorites with the Over/Under at 7.5. The line has shortened to Cleveland -115 while the total has ticked up to 8.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Mariners predictions
Picks made on 8/25/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Thursday, August 25, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YouTube
Guardians vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Triston McKenzie (9-9, 3.11 ERA): The rail-thin righthander is having a breakout season pitching to a 0.96 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .200 through 23 starts. The 25-year-old is coming off a sizzling performance against the White Sox where he allowed six hits and two runs while fanning 14 batters across seven innings.
Marco Gonzales (8-12, 4.08 ERA): Gonzales is going through his worst campaign since his sophomore season in 2017. The southpaw has a 1.41 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .280 and just 75 punchouts in 134 2-3 innings. He is coming off a win against the A's last Friday when he scattered six hits and two runs (one earned) across 5 1-3 innings.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in Cleveland's last eight road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mariners
Guardians vs Mariners picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The last time the Mariners made the postseason, Ichiro Suzuki was named AL Rookie of the Year. They are poised to return there this year but have just a 2.5-game cushion on surging Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot.
They need to start winning the games they should after losing three of their last four, despite facing the worst teams in the majors in the Nationals and A's.
The Guardians have won four of their last five and are coming off a 7-0 whitewashing of the Padres yesterday afternoon before making the trip up the Pacific Coast to Seattle.
The M's will send struggling southpaw Marco Gonzales to the mound today. Gonzales has a 6.03 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP in his last seven starts and his fastball is one of the worst in the business, averaging just 88.2 mph and ranking in the bottom 10th percentile in spin rate.
Cleveland responds with Triston McKenzie, who has been on fire since the start of July, pitching to a 1.91 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP across eight starts.
When it comes to hitting, both teams have struggled at the dish and have near identical numbers when it comes to OPS — with Cleveland at .701 and Seattle at .699.
The Guardians have been hitting better over the last month but Seattle's batting numbers are a bit deflated by playing its home games at an extreme pitcher-friendly park.
The middling lineups for both sides are a push, but Cleveland has a pretty decent edge when it comes to starting pitching, and that combined with its strong play on the road (8-1 in its last nine away games) has me backing it on the moneyline.
Prediction: Guardians ML (-115 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Considering how volatile Gonzales has been on the mound, it seems bizarre to even consider the Under 8.0. But given all the other factors, I'm slightly leaning in that direction. Neither side has been impressive (or consistent) at the dish and the M's plate just 3.83 runs per game at the pitcher's paradise of T-Mobile Park.
As bad as Gonzales has looked this season, he still has a 3.63 ERA with a .257 OBA at home — as opposed to his 4.60 ERA and .306 OBA on the road — and the Guardians have struggled to hit against lefties.
Both sides also have very good bullpens, with Cleveland relievers sixth in the majors in ERA (3.25) and third in WHIP (1.15) while the Mariners are ninth in ERA (3.39) and second in WHIP (1.09).
The Guardians are 12-3-1 to the Under in their last 16 games and the majority of those contests have seen totals of 7.5 or less. Meanwhile, Seattle is 23-8 to the Under in its last 31 home games against a right-handed starter, and the Under is 25-12-2 in its last 39 home games with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5.
Prediction: Under 8 (-112 at SportsInteraction)
Best bet
So much of MLB betting hinges on starting pitching, which is why this line seems a bit soft given the recent disparity between McKenzie and Gonzales. Not only are McKenzie's overall numbers much better this year, but he has also been red hot over the last two months and his analytics are superior as well.
Gonzales has been brutal this year — especially lately — plus his expected ERA (4.92), and expected batting average (.274) indicate that he's actually been even less effective than his surface numbers.
Combine that with the Guardians going 12-4 in their last 16 games and I'll gladly back them at a near pick'em price.
Pick: Guardians ML (-115 at bet365)
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