The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays begin a three-game series at Tropicana Field this evening.
The Guardians have the best record in the majors thanks in large part to their pitching, and that will be the key to my Guardians vs. Rays predictions for July 12.
Here are my MLB picks for this American League showdown.
Guardians vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Rays team total Under 4.5 (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
The primary reason that the Tampa Bay Rays are favorites today is because of their advantage on the mound. However, they've struggled at the dish, and I don't see them having much success in that area tonight. Keep in mind that they are averaging just 3.78 runs per game at a pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.
This is a Rays lineup that bats just .226 while ranking 26th in the majors in OPS (.661) against right-handers. Their analytics are just as bad, with their expected slugging percentage sitting at .379 thanks to the sixth-worst hard hit rate and fourth-worst exit velocity in the majors.
Although Cleveland Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 5.22 ERA, he hasn't been getting knocked around too badly lately. Carrasco has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last 10 starts and has pitched to a 4.53 ERA during that span.
Things will get much better for the Guardians after Carrasco comes out, with Cleveland's relievers leading the majors in ERA (2.69), WHIP (1.05), and OBA (.199). As long as Carrasco doesn't surrender 3+ runs, Cleveland's elite bullpen should be able to keep the Rays in check the rest of the way.
Guardians vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Rays team total Under 4.5
Taj Bradley Under 2.5 earned runs
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 total bases
Cleveland ranks last in the majors in hard-hit rate and second-last in barrel rate, so we could see some regression during the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley boasts a 1.76 ERA with an OBA of .153 in seven starts at home this season. He has also allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in each of his last six outings.
Taking the Under on Tampa Bay's team total while playing the Over 1.5 total bases for Brandon Lowe creates a nice multiplier for this parlay. Lowe crushed 39 homers for the Rays in 2021, and while he's been banged up the last two years, he's healthy and raking again.
Lowe is slashing .353/.436/.677 in his last 10 games. He also has a history of mashing against Carrasco, going 4-for-8 at the plate, with all of those being extra-base hits.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Rays odds
Guardians vs Rays live odds
Guardians vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-165) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +115 | Tampa Bay -130
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Guardians vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians have the best record in the AL at 57-35 but are coming off a series in Detroit where they lost three of four games.
- The Rays are 46-47 and are fresh off a home series against the Yankees, where they won two of three contests.
- The Guardians have been generating plenty of runs and rarely strike out. However, they are just 26th in the majors in expected slugging percentage (.386).
- Bradley had his worst game of the year against the Orioles on June 1 but he's been lights out ever since, pitching to a 1.29 ERA over his last six starts.
Guardians vs Rays trend
The Rays have hit the F5 team total Under in 51 of their last 80 games (+20.25 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Rays
Guardians vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 7-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Carlos Carrasco (3-6, 5.22 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (3-4, 3.23 ERA) |
Guardians vs Rays latest injuries
Guardians vs Rays weather
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