It's the decisive game between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox on Wednesday afternoon. Game 1 saw the Guardians win in epic comeback fashion, and the White Sox won Game 2 by a score of 4-1.
Once again, we cashed on our strikeout Under/White Sox F5 Best Bet parlay. Today, these two teams enter with very similar records as Cleveland sits at 15-15 and Chicago at 15-14.
Who will take the series win today? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox Wednesday, May 11th.
Guardians vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The White Sox opened up as -130 favorites, with the Guardians returning at +110. Since then, Cleveland has taken some money, and Chicago is down to -142 in some spots. The total opened up at 8 and has risen to 8.5 since then.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, NBC Sports Chicago
Guardians vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Civale (1-2, 9.45 ERA): It's been a rough start to the season for Civale. He opened the season against a Royals team that doesn't exactly knock the cover off the ball and only lasted three innings. It's only gotten worse since then. Civale has given up 12 combined earned runs in seven innings in his last two starts. The good thing for him is you'd have to expect some positive regression. His expected ERA is closer to 4, and that's generally who he's been throughout his career.
Last season, he was one of the better pitchers for Cleveland. But you have to wonder what the previous season's injury did to him. He hasn't looked like the same guy. The meager walk rate is still there, but that's about it. His barrel rate, exit velo, and hard-hit rate are at the bottom of the league, making him almost impossible to back.
Vince Velasquez (2-2, 3.97 ERA): Velasquez is on the other end of the spectrum here. There's not much impressive about the way he's been pitching, but he's been highly likely to have the numbers. With that being said, Velasquez is coming off his best outing when he stiffed a strong hitting Angels team going just over five innings and giving up no earned runs.
Before then, he was roughed up by the Minnesota Twins to the tune of eight hits and five earned runs in just over three innings of work. Like his counterpart, Velasquez has a barrel rate, exit velo, and hard-hit rate in the dumps. You'd have to think a few more rough starts are in Velasquez's future; it's just a matter of when.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Guardians: No injuries to report.
White Sox: Andrew Vaughn (LF), Eloy Jimenez (LF), Yermin Mercedes (1B).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-0 in Civale’s last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. White Sox
Guardians vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
I'm not running to back either of these teams today and probably won't, at least pregame anyway. Unfortunately, this pitching leaves much more to be desired.
Civale is due for some significant regression, but it's hard to bet him against an excellent White Sox lineup. Let's mention again what we spoke about yesterday. There are two teams in the MLB that meet the following conditions: Top 5 in exit velocity, Top 5 in barrel rate, and an expected slugging percentage higher than their actual slugging percentage: the Yankees and the White Sox. That's a problem for Civale, who can't seem to miss the barrel of any bat lately.
On the other side, Velasquez is ripe for another lousy outing. The only thing to determine is when that's going to happen. Cleveland would be well suited in this matchup. Velasquez relies greatly on strikeouts, and the Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. He's been living on the edge producing a fly-ball rate higher than any other outcome of his pitches. The Guardians can make him pay for that.
I will lean heavily on my projections here. They say that Chicago wins this game close to 60% of the time. That means that a price of -150 would be the "fair price" for the White Sox to win. The problem for us? That's pretty much exactly what it is.
I'll take Chicago here, but there's not much of an edge.
Prediction: White Sox moneyline (-145 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
If it wasn't for some questionable baserunning last night, I believe the Over hits, and we complete the sweep on the article plays. But, instead, that didn't happen — the game finished slightly Under, and we lost that bet. But persist, we must. So, I'll be taking the Over today, and I'm doing so confidently.
A few trends:
The Over is 8-0 in Civale’s last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Over is 8-1 in Guardians' last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Over is 7-1 in Guardians' last eight overall.
If you had a "system play" for when to bet Cleveland Guardians Overs, it would be ringing loudly for today to be one of those days.
Both of these pitchers leave much more to be desired at the plate, and what both these pitchers do well, the other team is well equipped to counter in their lineups. Of course, it helps that it will be another sunny, humid day at Guaranteed Rate Field.
We've seen sharp, heavy action to the Over for this one. The number opened at 8 and has gone to 8.5 at every shop you can find. I'll follow that money, as I believe it's the right side. I'm projecting this one to go Over the posted total about 65% of the time, which gives us a nice edge.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at Circa)
Best bet
We've picked on the pitchers all series and been successful. I see no reason to stop now. This play is essentially a culmination of the above handicap.
We think the Civale is a good matchup for the White Sox hitters. Civale doesn't strike out many people and has an awful barrel rate. Tim Anderson has the best barrel rate on the White Sox and the lowest strikeout rate. So, I expect him to get a hit. I wouldn't be surprised if he went long.
Velasquez is a good matchup for Guardians hitters, as he’s due for some sizable negative regression at some point. He relies on a high strikeout clip to get through innings. He's facing a lineup with both the majors' highest contact rate and lowest whiff rate. It shouldn't surprise Giolito — an even higher strikeout pitcher — who had the fewest Ks of any start this season against Cleveland last night. We like Josh Naylor to get a hit. He's had the hottest bat of anyone in this series and is well suited again in this matchup.
I would rarely look at a four-piece SGP and love the value. But that's the case here; if we get average performances from most players today, this should cash. Because of that, it's one of my favorite bets on the slate.
Pick: Same-Game Parlay, Anderson to record a hit + Naylor to record a hit + Civale Under 4.5 strikeouts + Velasquez Under 4.5 strikeouts (+435 at FanDuel)
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