The Cleveland Guardians will try to build on their five-game AL Central lead when they take on the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on Wednesday night.
The clubs kicked off a three-game set on Tuesday night, and Cleveland prevailed in a wild 10-7 win over 11 innings. Can Chicago answer back here? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs White Sox on Wednesday, September 21.
Guardians vs White Sox best odds
Guardians vs White Sox picks and predictions
Triston McKenzie and Lance Lynn both look like they will be tough to solve in this spot. Bettors should be rewarded if they back in the Under in the first five innings market, and factor the bullpens out of the equation.
McKenzie has been outstanding in the second half of the season, authoring a 2.92 ERA over 11 starts. He’s reigned in some control issues from earlier in the campaign, raising his strikeout/walk ratio from 3.56 in the first half (16 starts) to 4.44. McKenzie has also thrown just one wild pitch since the All-Star break, compared to seven before it. He’s hit no batters after plunking five in the first half of 2022.
The Brooklyn native has enjoyed plenty of success against the White Sox this year, producing a 2.12 ERA and .183 opponent batting average over three starts (17 innings).
Lynn has been one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.43 ERA over his last seven outings. That includes a solid effort against the Guardians last Thursday in which he allowed only two runs on six hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings. In his last three performances against Cleveland (18 innings), Lynn owns a 1.50 ERA.
It’s hard to knock the lineups of these two teams after what they’ve done in their last two games, with Chicago plating 18 runs, and the Guardians tallying 21. But neither squad has been an overall offensive dynamo this year, with the South Siders checking in 13th at 4.39 runs per game, and the G’s in 18th with 4.24 runs per game.
About half of the major sportsbooks list 4.5 as the first five innings total, while the other half list 4.0 as the line. I am comfortable playing the Under on the latter line, considering the juice on the first line is as high as -148.
My best bet: First five innings Under 4 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Guardians vs White Sox betting preview
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•Moneyline analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather
Moneyline analysis
Considering Cleveland has won 13 of its last 16 games, it seems it holds some value as underdogs in this tilt.
The Guardians’ offense couldn’t be much hotter, as they have averaged 7.4 runs per game over their last five victories. Steven Kwan has amassed multiple hits in each of his last four starts, going 11-for-21 (.524) with three RBI.
Amed Rosario — fresh off his otherworldly performance against the Minnesota Twins in which he had four hits in both halves of a doubleheader en route to an 11-hit series — was on base twice against the White Sox on Tuesday. He’s batting .386 against Chicago this season with nine RBI (70 at bats).
Even Myles Straw has been getting in on the act at the bottom of the G’s order, as he’s hitting .338 in September.
If Cleveland is unable to get to Lynn, it can still attack a vulnerable South Siders bullpen that owns the second-worst strand rate in baseball over the last two weeks (59%).
Over/Under analysis
Having two strong starters on the mound is a key ingredient for an Under play, but it does not guarantee success — at least not with the way these bullpens have performed of late.
The aforementioned Chicago bullpen has been held back by some surprising sources of late, namely Kendall Graveman and Jake Diekman. Graveman kickstarted a five-run implosion in the 11th inning by the White Sox relief corps on Tuesday night by allowing two runs in the top of the frame (one earned). He owns a 4.91 ERA on the month.
Diekman came in after Graveman and served up the other three runs to the Guardians, sending his ERA with Chicago soaring to 5.40. Jimmy Lambert has also been lacking this month, allowing at least one run in three of his last five games.
Cleveland’s bullpen owns a 66.3% strand rate over the last two weeks, sixth-worst in the majors in that span. Enyel De Los Santos (4.91 ERA), Trevor Stephan (5.19 ERA), and Bryan Shaw (7.45 ERA) have all had their fair share of hiccups this month. Even the normally dependable Emmanuel Clase gave up an earned run and blew a save on Tuesday.
Betting trend to know
The Guardians are 21-8 in their last 29 games against AL Central opponents. . Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. White Sox
Guardians vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-CHI, Bally Sports Ohio
Starting pitchers
Triston McKenzie (10-11, 3.08 ERA): Triston McKenzie goes for his seventh quality start in a nine-start span when he faces the White Sox on Wednesday night. He fanned 14 Chicago batters over seven innings of two-run ball when he last faced them on Aug. 19.
Lance Lynn (7-5, 3.99 ERA): Lance Lynn has authored five consecutive quality starts, and he’s been mowing down the opposition with authority. Lynn has tallied 38 strikeouts and only four walks in that sample.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
