The contrasting weather across the league couldn't be more different. Luckily, that's given us some favorable long-ball conditions if you look in the right place.
Today, we're targeting three MLB player props, including one New York Met, in what has become an offensive heaven in Sacramento. Here are my favorite home run picks for Friday, April 11.
Best MLB home run props today
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Alonso (+300 at DraftKings) -
Toglia (+560 at FanDuel) -
Aranda (+520 at FanDuel)
HR picks for April 11
Pete Alonso (+300 at DraftKings)
The New York Mets are a team I've circled to bet on the long ball when heading to Sacramento. As we (and plenty of others) have documented this season, the third-shortest fences and dimensions overall have turned this into a ballpark where you expect a ton of offense.
Pete Alonso should be licking his chops with a Top 50 isolated power ranking against lefties last season, but the advantages don't stop there.
Alonso has been hitting almost everything this season but hasn't had a long ball in five games. That doesn't mean the hard contact isn't being made, though.
Just look at his showing two days ago against the Miami Marlins when Alonso hit a ball 108 MPH for a long flyout. Or the day before when he hit two balls over 110 MPHs.
In other words, it's only a matter of time. I love the pitch mix he'll see today, leading the Mets in hard-hit rate against the sweeper and slider, too. The Polar Bear is very live today.
Michael Toglia (+560 at FanDuel)
I can't pass up this price today with favorable hitting conditions in a favorable ballpark. It also helps that few players in baseball have hit the ball harder over the past year than Michael Toglia.
I like the matchup against Padres righty Nick Pivetta. A barrel rate in the Bottom 10% of baseball over his first two starts is troubling, even if he's allowed one homer.
Toglia has faced Pivetta twice in his career, with a 1.000 OPS and very hard contact. Those data points are almost worthless since they are just two appearances, but they validate the predictive metrics.
Pivetta is primarily a three-pitch thrower leaning heavily on the curveball and sweeper, even more so this season. This is music to the ears of Toglia, who has the highest barrel rate against the Rockies dating back to last season against these two pitches.
Jonathan Aranda (+520 at FanDuel)
Tampa Bay is one of those locations that will have very favorable hitting conditions today, with winds blowing out and temps in the high 70s. According to the BatX, it's the second-best weather conditions of the day for offense. Thus, I wanted to be involved in this game.
I landed on Jonathan Aranda.
Bryce Elder will take the mound for the Atlanta Braves; he has had a wild four years. The 25-year-old went from a hot name to a massive regression candidate in a flash, and we've seen at least some of that regression over the past two seasons. The problem for Elder is there's still more to come.
He'll enter today with a 6.75 ERA but an expected ERA of 8.4. He's gone from producing ground ball rates at an elite rate to simply just an above-average rate, and that's an issue. His barrel rate is set in the Bottom 10% of baseball and will only worsen.
Aranda will enter the day with multiple feathers in his cap in this matchup: the highest barrel rate amongst Rays players, the highest hard-hit rate against Elder's primary pitch amongst Rays players, and the highest hard-hit rate against Elder's secondary pitch amongst Rays players. I love him at this price.
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