There's no better way to spend your weekend of MLB betting than cheering for home run props, and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.
Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, if your first bet (of $10 or more) on a player to hit a home run hits a grand slam that day... you win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot — in addition to BetMGM having among the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Anthony Santander (+450 at BetMGM)
Tied for fourth in the bigs with 21 home runs, Anthony Santander is one of the big boppers on baseball’s best homer-hitting team in the Baltimore Orioles.
Santander got the day off Thursday in the series opener against the Texas Rangers after a 1-for-11 series against the Guardians — though that one hit was a home run, giving him at least one jack in seven of the last eight series.
Texas is tied for the fifth-most home runs allowed this season, and Santander will get a look at Max Scherzer, whom he’s rocked in limited at-bats. The switch-hitting Santander has gone 4-for-7 against Scherzer in his career with a pair of home runs and a double.
We all know Scherzer’s credentials, but did you know he’s given up five grand slams in his career? The baseball gods might have aligned all the stars for some fireworks on Friday.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+340 at BetMGM)
With three home runs in the month of June, you might be wondering why our target in a home-run challenge is Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals.
He does lead the team in hitting, fourth in MLB with a .310 average, and his 12 home runs are tied with Salvador Perez for best on the squad, but it’s the matchup that matters most.
Witt Jr. will get a chance to tee off on Cleveland Guardians starter Triston McKenzie, who is currently tied for the second-most home runs allowed with 17. How bad is it for the 26-year-old righty? Last start, the light-hitting Blue Jays (bottom 5 in longballs) took him yard twice in only three innings of work.
Witt Jr. has already blown McKenzie up with two home runs in their June 4 matchup. He’s hitting .314 against righties this season with 10 long balls.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
In Rod' we don't trust
Roddery Munoz has been lit up like a Christmas tree in the month of June. He’s surrendered three home runs in back-to-back games, and eight total over his last four starts for the Miami Marlins.
His 14 home runs allowed have accumulated over only seven starts. Munoz kept the ball in the yard on just two outings and allowed multi-HR efforts in all the others.
The Philadelphia Phillies are not a soft landing: they are tied for fourth in the majors with 97 home runs, and Citizens Bank Park offers up plenty of long-ball souvenirs, the seventh-most in baseball.
Even if Bryce Harper (hamstring) and Kyle Schwarber (groin) were dinged up Thursday night, there are enough bats that can do damage in that lineup.
Possible picks: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos
Canning can't get away clean
Griffin Canning broke a four-game losing streak last time out but was taken deep again, making it three straight and seven out of eight appearances he’s given up a home run. He’s allowed 15 home runs on the year, putting him in a three-way tie for fifth on the leaderboard.
There are plenty of deep flies in the Los Angeles Angels' home ballpark, which is currently serving up the sixth-most home runs in baseball.
The Detroit Tigers are not one of the prolific home-run hitting squads out there, but two of the current Tigers scheduled to face Canning (Mark Canha and Jake Rogers) have taken him yard.
Possible picks: Mark Canha, Jake Rogers, Riley Greene
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Falter lines
Bailey Falter of the Pittsburgh Pirates has given up 12 dingers on the season, including seven in his last nine outings.
One of those is to the same Atlanta Braves team that he’s going up against Sunday. Falter has given up at least one tater in three of his four career starts against them.
Atlanta ranks fourth in the majors in home runs against lefties with 26, and Truist Park has allowed the 10th-most long balls in the bigs.
Possible picks: Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna
Logan gets scratched up
I'm not trying to pick on the Guardians, but they do happen to employ the Top 2 pitchers serving up home runs this season.
Despite a respectable 8-3 record, Logan Allen is the clubhouse leader with 18, and he’s coming off a rough outing against the Orioles. He was taken yard three times, the third multi-HR game he’s had in the last six starts, allowing nine overall in that span.
He’s given up three round-trippers in his last two starts against the Royals. Allen is sporting a 5.11 ERA on the road, allowing 11 home runs in 49 1/3 innings.
Righties are hitting a crisp .303 on him this season, ripping 14 homers.
Possible picks: Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through May 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.48%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.84%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.84%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.76%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
