It’s Friday! We’re out of the office and into the betting pool, trying to get a piece of BetMGM’s Grand Slam Jackpot.
You know the routine: place a wager of $10 or more on a player to hit a home run on Friday through Sunday, and you’ll win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot if he hits a grand slam that day.
It’s an especially sweet deal since BetMGM already has some of the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Corey Seager, Rangers (+350 at BetMGM)
Corey Seager’s 24 home runs lead the Texas Rangers, and he’s been especially potent with the long ball in the month of August. He’s gone yard in four of his last six games, totaling five homers, and now he gets to take cuts at one of baseball’s best launch pads in Yankee Stadium.
New York’s ballpark has yielded the third-most homers in baseball with 119, and they trot out lefty Carlos Rodon to start. His 12-7 record is tied for the fifth-most wins in baseball, but he’s been getting tagged along the way.
Rodon’s 24 home runs allowed is tied for the third-most coughed up in the big leagues. He’s been taken yard in eight straight starts, yielding 13 total homers.
It’s a small sample, but Seager is 4-for-6 vs. Rodon in his career, which includes a homer.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+400 at BetMGM)
If we’re predicting grand slams, why not take a stab with a player on the Baltimore Orioles? They lead the majors in home runs and are tied for the second most grand salamis this season with six.
Gunnar Henderson ranks Top 6 in baseball with 29 dingers on the season. He’s had his way with Tampa Bay Rays pitching this season, hitting .414 in 29 at-bats with three home runs and five RBI.
Two of those homers are against Friday’s pitcher, Zack Littell. The 28-year-old righty has not been able to keep the ball inside the park, giving up home runs in 12 of his last 14 starts.
The Trop is generous enough, as it ranks middle of the pack in home runs given up this season with 99.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Lightning Rod'
Rookie starter Roddery Munoz has a bloated 5.68 ERA for the Miami Marlins, a large part of it owing to the fact he keeps getting taken yard.
Munoz has surrendered 21 dingers in just 14 starts. Over his last three appearances, the righty has surrendered six home runs. That includes getting pumped for three big flies at the hands of the homer-happy Orioles and a pair at Great American Ballpark, the most prolific homer park in baseball, by the Reds.
No rest for the wicked here as Munoz gets his first look at the San Diego Padres, who currently rank just outside the Top 10 in home runs hit this season.
The Padres hit a respectable .282 on the road with a .478 slugging percentage over the last seven days and 10 homers over their last six games.
Possible Picks: Profar > Machado > Tatis
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Hey there, Keider
Keider Montero is another rookie who's having a rocky start to his major league career for the Detroit Tigers should be a target on Sunday.
Montero has just nine major league starts under his belt, and he’s had exactly one appearance where he hasn’t been taken yard. He gave up a dinger last time out in Seattle, the fifth straight game he’s been tagged, with eight heading out as souvenirs.
The San Francisco Giants have belted out five grand slams on the season, tied for the third-most in the majors. Montero is catching San Francisco at perhaps their hitting apex: over the last seven games, they have the second most homers in the majors with 15, while posting a stout .505 slugging percentage.
Possible picks: Chapman > Ramos > Conforto
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through July 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.54%), followed by the No. 7 hitter (11.63%). The cleanup spot is third at 10.94%, just barely ahead of the No. 5 spot (10.79%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.93%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 5), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have two of the three worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
