The Philadelphia Phillies are big home favorites in tonight's opener against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays despite suffering back-to-back losses in Miami over the weekend.
My Rays vs. Phillies like the home team to get back on track, especially in the early innings.
Read on for my full MLB picks for Monday, September 9.
Rays vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies First Five -0.5 (-150 at bet365)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the best first five teams in the league with a 78-65 record — only the Milwaukee Brewers (80-62) have had more success in the first half of games. The Phillies have also been one of the best home teams in the league both overall (47-25) and on the first-five run line at 44-28.
That lines up well against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are a league-worst 62-81 on the first-five run line, including 32-36 on the road.
There is also quite a disparity between the starting pitching plans for these two teams. The Phillies are starting left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, who is 10-9 with a 3.45 ERA and has a sparkling 2.24 ERA at home. The youngster is 2-1 in his last four starts with just eight ER in 27 2/3 IP.
The Rays are going with an opener to start the game in Cole Sulser, who has a 4.35 ERA in seven games. He is expected to be followed by Tyler Alexander, who has allowed 56 ER in 89 IP (5.66 ERA) this season.
The Phillies’ bats should be able to get to either Sulser or Alexander for a few runs early on while Sanchez settles in at home.
Rays vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Under 7.5
Brandon Marsh 1+ hits
The Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball and enjoy playing in front of their home fans. Despite a hiccup in Miami, the Phillies are still 7-2 in their last nine games and 9-3 in their last 12 at home.
Brandon Marsh isn’t necessarily known for his bat but he’s hitting .270 at home (.234 on the road) and is riding a six-game hitting streak.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Phillies odds
Rays vs Phillies live odds
Rays vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +165 | Philadelphia -200
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-125 | Philadelphia -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Rays vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies's odds have skyrocketed to -225 after opening around -195.
- In turn, the Tampa Bay Rays are now as high as +200 after opening at +165.
- The total opened with Over 7.5 favored, and some books have now moved that up to a flat Over 8 (+100) and Under 8 (-120).
Rays vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Phillies.
Rays vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Cole Sulser (0-0, 4.35 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (10-9, 3.45 ERA) |
Rays vs Phillies latest injuries
Rays vs Phillies weather
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