MLB Odds Leader Analysis: Aaron Judge Favored to Lead Big Leagues in Home Runs, Runs and RBI

It seems crazy to think about this, but MLB Spring Training is just around the corner and that means sportsbooks are starting to post a variety of MLB futures odds, including the always intriguing MLB player props for regular season leaders.  

When it comes to position player markets, it’s no surprise Aaron Judge is the betting favorite for several of those categories including home runs, RBI, and runs scored, considering the record-setting season he had a year ago.

But before you go running to the betting window banking on Judge to put on a repeat performance we’re here to show you there is value all around the diamond in the MLB league leader odds.

• Home run leader odds
• RBI leader odds
• Hits leader odds
• Stolen bases leader odds
• Runs leader odds

Odds to win 2023 home run title 

Player	Team	Odds
Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	+600
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	+800
Pete Alonso	New York Mets	+900
Yordan Alvarez	Atlanta Braves	+1,000
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	+1,100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	+1,200
Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	+1,300
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	+1,400
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Angels	+1,500
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	+1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023.

Home run title analysis

In maybe the least surprising bit of MLB odds news, at +600, the MLB home run leader odds have none other than New York Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge at the top after he blasted an American League record-setting 62 dingers.

Now, leading the MLB in home runs in consecutive seasons is a difficult thing to do. No one has done it since Jose Bautista with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010-11.  However, if anyone can do it, it’s Judge. The towering power hitter has hit 50 or more dingers twice in his career.

He has protection in the Yankees lineup and a homer-friendly home ballpark. That said, he’s had his fair share of injuries in his career, and last year was his “prove it” season, so it would not be shocking to see some dropoff.

So, there should be some value farther down the board. The next, and worthy favorites are Mike Trout (+800) and Pete Alonso (+900). Trout, is well, Mike Trout, and is capable of putting on a historic performance in any given season. Meanwhile, Alonso led the MLB in homers in his rookie season in 2019 and has averaged 43.3 dingers in his three full seasons.

But at longer odds maybe take a look at Ronald Acuna Jr. at +2,800, and Julio Rodriguez at +4,000.

Acuna only hit 15 home runs last season, but this is his first fully healthy and normal offseason since 2019 when he hit 41 home runs. Acuna has power in all fields and his advanced numbers have him among the league leaders in relevant power metrics.

Rodriguez burst onto the scene for the Mariners and hit 28 dingers in his rookie season, and the ceiling for J-Rod is as high as they come.

Odds to be 2023 RBI leader

Player	Team	Odds
Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	+700
Pete Alonso	New York Mets	+800
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	+1,000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	+1,000
Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	+1,200
Rafael Devers	Boston Red Sox	+1,300
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	+1,300
Kyle Tucker	Houston Astros	+1,400
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	+1,500
Nolan Arenado	St. Louis Cardinals	+1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023.

RBI leader analysis

Well. If you have the kind of season Aaron Judge had in 2022, you’re going to be the betting favorite to be the league leader in a lot of categories. That said, he was tied for the most runs batted in last season with he and Mets slugger Pete Alonso driving in 131 runs apiece. 

Judge and Alonso are +700, and +800 respectively when it comes to leading the MLB in RBI this season. They are followed by Yordan Alvarez (+1,000), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1,000), and Austin Riley (+1,200).

Long-time Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has been a premier run producer in MLB over the last several seasons. In fact, only Alonso has driven in more than Abreu’s 375 RBI since the start of the 2019 season.

While he is getting a little past his prime, Abreu should be rejuvenated by joining the reigning World Series champion Astros. Abreu will help form one of the best lineups in baseball that will include Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman. So, there should be ample opportunities for Abreu to get back to his run-producing ways this season. And +4,000 looks like a solid value.

Odds to be 2023 hits leader

Player	Team	Odds
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies	+800
Tim Anderson	Chicago White Sox	+1,200
Rafael Devers	Boston Red Sox	+1,300
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	+1,300
Bo Bichette	Toronto Blue Jays	+1,300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	+1,500
Mookie Betts	Los Angeles Dodgers	+1,700
Kyle Tucker	Houston Astros	+1,700
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	+1,700
Paul Goldschmidt	St. Louis Cardinals	+1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023.

Hits leader analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies made big moves this offseason in hopes of returning to the World Series in a tough National League East. The biggest move was of course bringing in All-Star shortstop Trea Turner. 

Turner has been a hitting machine the last few seasons, and the Phillies are betting that continues in 2023. Oddsmakers are thinking the same. At +600, Turner is the favorite to lead MLB in hits. He cashed that bet in 2020, and 2021, and last season he finished second — falling five hits behind former Dodgers’ teammate Freddie Freeman.

Speaking of Freeman, he has the third-best odds of +1,300 and is a solid bet. He sits just behind Tim Anderson at +1,200 and is tied with Rafael Devers and Bo Bichette. 

Bichette is also worth a look. The Blue Jays’ shortstop has led the American League in hits in his first two full Big League seasons and is a career .297 hitter. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. generally hitting behind him, Bichette will regularly have protection in the Toronto lineup.

A little bit further down the board, Francisco Lindor sticks out at +5,000. Lindor’s second season in New York looked much better than his first, hitting .270 and collecting 170 hits. Lindor has averaged 176.6 hits over his five seasons where he didn’t miss extended time. Lindor is also regularly among the league leaders in plate appearances and the Mets should have one of the best offenses in baseball in the National League.

Odds to be 2023 stolen bases leader

Player	Team	Odds
Adalberto Mondesi	Boston Red Sox	+500
Ronald Acuna Jr.	Atlanta Braves	+600
Esteury Ruiz	Oakland Athletics	+700
Cedric Mullins	Baltimore Orioles	+800
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	+1,200
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals	+1,300
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies	+1,400
Tommy Edman	St. Louis Cardinals	+1,500
Randy Arozarena	Tampa Bay Rays	+1,500
Jake McCarthy	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1,700

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023. 

Stolen bases leader analysis

The stolen base has become a lost art form in Major League Baseball but because of a few rule changes, they could make a bit of a comeback in 2023. 

Two new changes could impact base stealing this season. One. The bases are slightly bigger to help avoid collisions. And while it may be minor, the distance between the first and second will be shorter. Secondly, the pitch clock. An aware baserunner could time his start when a pitcher’s pitch clock is winding down.

So, who are the favorites to have a big season on the bags? 

At the top of the board is Adalberto Mondesi at +600. The former Kansas City Royal is getting ready for his first season with Boston Red Sox, and Mondesi has blazing speed when he’s healthy. He led MLB in steals in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but he’s only played 50 games since then and has logged more than 100 games just once in his career.

Mondesi is followed by Ronald Acuna Jr. at +600 and then interestingly, it’s A’s prospect, Esteury Ruiz. Another kid with blazing speed and he should get plenty of opportunities on yet another rebuilding Oakland roster, but he definitely struggled with the bat in just his handful of at-bats with the Padres last season.

The guy to back here might be Royals’ shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. at +1,300. Witt is now the face of the franchise and will be a mainstay at the top of the Kansas City lineup this season. He was solid at the dish in his rookie season with a .254 batting average.

Witt was also sixth in the MLB in steals last season with 30 and my favorite stat, he ranks in the 100th percentile when it comes to sprint speed in MLB.

Odds to be 2023 runs leader 

Player	Team	Odds
Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	+600
Mookie Betts	Los Angeles Dodgers	+700
Juan Soto	San Diego Padres	+800
Ronald Acuna Jr.	Atlanta Braves	+900
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	+1,000
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	+1,100
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies	+1,400
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	+1,500
Jose Altuve	Houston Astros	+1,800
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	+1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023. 

Runs leader analysis

Oh, look, another category is where Aaron Judge is favored to be the league leader. Well, it’s not shocking that a guy who whacked 62 dingers would also be the league leader in runs scored. Judge crossed home plate 133 times last season, 16 more times than the next closest player — Mookie Betts.

Betts is the second favorite at +700. His 117 runs scored led the National League and he should be a key contributor to another strong Dodgers offense. He also led MLB in scoring in 2018, and 2019 when he was still with the Red Sox.

Following those two are Juan Soto at +800, Acuna at +900, Trout at +1,000, and Freeman at +1,100. Among the Top 6, Freeman looks like he has the best value. Freeman was tied with his teammate Betts for the most runs scored in the NL during his first season in Dodger Blue, and scoring runs isn’t new for him. Since 2019 he’s been the only player to cross home plate more than 400 times.

But if you’re looking at someone with longer odds, maybe focus on a guy like Jose Ramirez at +3,500. The Guardians' third baseman had a bit of a down year in 2022, scoring just 90 times. However, he’s scored 107 or more times in three of his four previous full seasons and led the AL in scoring in the shortened 2020.

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