Indians vs Angels Picks and Predictions: Cleveland's Pitching The Edge Today

Cleveland is one of the worst-hitting teams in the Majors but it has a strong repertoire of arms. That includes starter Zach Plesac, who has a 3.56 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this season.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 18, 2021 • 18:15 ET
Zach Plesac Cleveland Indians MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Indians lost 7-4 to the Los Angeles Angels last night and will hope to get revenge in the second contest of their three-game set in L.A. on Tuesday night.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close game with the Halos currently installed as slim -120 home favorites.

Here are our best free Indians vs. Angels picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 18, with the opening pitch scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. 

Indians vs Angels game info

Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
TV: BSW, BSGL

Indians vs Angels odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

The Angels opened as -137 favorites at TwinSpires, initially dipped to -127 and are down to -120 at 6:15 p.m. ET. Moneyline ticket count is 3/1 and moneyline cash 2/1 on the underdog Indians. The total fell from 8 to 7.5, with 62 percent of tickets on the Over and 57 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Indians vs Angels betting preview

Starting pitchers

Zach Plesac (3-3, 3.56 ERA): The 26-year-old is coming off a strong performance against the Mariners where he allowed just two hits and two runs through eight innings of work. Through eight starts this season, the right-hander has pitched to a 0.96 WHIP while holding opponents to a slugging percentage of just .335. 

Andrew Heaney (1-3, 4.75 ERA): Heaney was roughed up for nine hits, five earned runs, and three home runs in his previous start last Wednesday against the Astros. The lefty has a high spin rate and good velocity, which helps him rack up strikeouts, but he can also get rocked as his 4.45 ERA in 67 starts since 2018 would suggest.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Indians: Roberto Perez C (Out).
Angels: Mike Trout CF (Questionable), David Fletcher SS (Questionable), Max Stassi C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Indians are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Indians vs. Angels.

Moneyline pick

The Angels have won back-to-back games following a four-game losing streak. They are 5-10 in their last 15 games, sitting fourth place in the AL West, just half a game ahead of last-place Texas.

Cleveland is currently on a four-game losing streak but is still in second place in the AL Central with a 21-18 record. The Tribe fell behind early last night when the Halos plated six runs through the first two innings but they should be able to prevent an early offensive surge today as they send Zach Plesac to the mound.  

Plesac had a strong sophomore season in 2020, pitching to 2.28 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP across eight starts, and he's looked very sharp in May. In three starts this month, he has allowed just eight hits and two earned runs over 21 2-3 innings. 

The Angels will start Andrew Heaney, who always seems on the verge of a breakout season but is maddeningly inconsistent. He's just as capable of fanning 10 batters and pitching seven innings of shutout ball (as he almost did against the Rays two weeks ago), as he is of getting rocked for three homers as he has in two of his last three starts. 

Even beyond the starters, Cleveland has a big advantage when it comes to pitching. The Tribe bullpen leads the majors with an ERA of 2.64 while the Angels rank just 26th with an ERA of 5.20. 

Even with three-time AL MVP Mike Trout listed as questionable today, the Angels have the better group of hitters. But MLB betting is all about the arms, which has us leaning towards the slim road underdogs. 

PREDICTION: Cleveland (+100)

Over/Under pick

Handicapping the Over/Under is tough because Cleveland is one of the worst hitting — and best pitching — teams in baseball while L.A. is one of the best hitting and worst pitching squads.

That said, while the Angels are eighth in the majors with an OPS of .724, they have struggled lately, ranking just 22nd with an OPS of .664 over the last 15 days. They have been held to three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 15 games, averaging just 3.67 runs per game over that span. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland has been awful at the plate all season, ranking 23rd in the majors with an OPS of .671 while plating 4.03 runs per game. 

While these sides cashed the Over last night by combining for 11 runs, they had gone below the O/U in their five previous games in the head-to-head. With the Under going 5-2 in the Angels last seven games overall, take it again today. 

PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-110)

Indians vs Angels betting card

  • Cleveland ML (+100)
  • Under 7.5 (-110)

Picks made on 5/18/2021 at 10:50 a.m. ET

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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

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