There's no place like home.
The Toronto Blue Jays said that three times and clicked their heels for 670 days, finally getting their wish as they returned to their true home last weekend. Toronto made a triumphant return to the Rogers Centre, sweeping the lowly Kansas City Royals, and will look to get the home vibes going as it opens a four-game set with the slightly less bad Cleveland Indians.
The Blue Jays are sending their de facto ace to the mound today, and are massive MLB betting home favorites as Cleveland is trotting out what looks to be a sacrificial lamb for the powerful Toronto offense.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Indians vs. Blue Jays on Monday, August 2, with first pitch set for 3:07 p.m. ET.
Indians vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, August 2, 2021
• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Rogers Sportsnet, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Indians vs Blue Jays odds
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Indians vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eli Morgan (1-3, 7.47 ERA): We'll give Morgan credit for consistency — he's gone exactly five innings in each of his last five starts — but he's also surrendered at least three earned runs in all of his seven starts in 2021. The 25-year-old righty is primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, but opponents are hitting over .300 off his fourseamer — and he's given up at least one home run in every start.
Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04 ERA): Ray has been a revelation for Toronto this season, asserting himself as the team's ace (well, prior to the acquisition of Jose Berrios), sitting fourth in the AL in ERA and WHIP (1.06), and racking up the second-most strikeouts. The lefty has also given up two earned runs or fewer, and pitched at least six innings, in five of his last seven starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Indians: Bobby Bradley 1B (Out), Josh Naylor OF (Out).
Blue Jays: Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Corey Dickerson OF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Indians vs. Blue Jays.
Runline pick
No longer is it the Buffalo Blue Jays, or the Dunedin Blue Jays, or the Nomad Jays — it's finally back to the actual Toronto Blue Jays... and the club wasted no time showing how happy it was to return home for the first time in nearly two years.
Powered by a Rogers Centre return — and the excitement following a trade deadline that was a massive "we're going for it" statement by management, Toronto beat up the hapless Royals, outscoring them 15-5 in a three-game sweep. That extended Toronto's overall win streak to five straight games, and up next is a Cleveland club that has lost three of its last five and looks to be throwing up a white flag on the season.
The soon-to-be Guardians are currently .500 and second in the AL Central, but they are nine games behind the White Sox for the division lead and 6.5-games back of the second Wild Card spot, with three teams — including the Blue Jays — ahead of them in the race. Essentially, they're competitive but not realistically looking at the postseason.
Cleveland has really slumped over the last month, going 9-16 since July 1. It dropped two of three games against Toronto in late May, giving up 20 runs in that series, and we don't expect the Tribe to limit the Jays today with Eli Morgan on the mound.
The righty has been a punching bag this season, sporting a 7.47 ERA, which is fitting as he likes to have baseballs take flight like a Boeing 747 — he's allowed 11 home runs in 31 1-3 innings this year. That also includes clearing two homers for flight in three of his last four outings, which is not good against a Toronto offense that leads the MLB in round-trippers.
On the other side, Cleveland is one of the lightest-hitting teams in baseball and faces a starter in Ray that has been among one of the best pitchers in the American League this year.
The pitching matchup is bad, the offensive discrepancy is huge, and the Blue Jays have the magic going from their first true homestand. This one could get ugly.
PREDICTION: Blue Jays -1.5 (-140)
Over/Under pick
Toronto has a ballyhooed offense — first home runs, second in batting average, third in runs per game — but it has seen the Under cash in four of their five wins (and six of its last seven overall) because the pitching has been spectacular.
The Jays have given up seven runs over this five-game stretch, and that number is inflated by a four-run outburst from Kansas City. There's no reason to believe that Cleveland, which has the second-lowest OBP in the Majors (.297), will do major damage against Ray today, who has been cruising almost all season.
Now, the question is how many runs will Toronto score before the Book of Eli is closed today? It's very possible that the Jays can hang a real ugly number, but enough to overtake the 9.5 total?
The Jays have scored more than six runs just three times just twice in their last 10 contests, so we're looking at a realistic ceiling of six or seven runs. Combine that with Cleveland likely putting up little resistance against Ray and we don't see this afternoon matinee reaching double-digits.
PREDICTION: Under 9.5 (-120)
Indians vs Blue Jays betting card
- Blue Jays -1.5 (-140)
- Under 9.5 (-120)
Picks made on 8/2/2021 at 10:22 a.m. ET
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