It’s Shohei day at Angel Stadium as Ohtani will get the ball tonight as a -155 home favorite vs. Bryan Woo and the strikeout-prone Seattle Mariners. It’s the opener of a four-game set between two AL West teams that are both at 56 wins and looking for that Wild Card spot.
With Woo’s spot in the rotation coming into question after a zero strikeout performance, is betting against the short-leashed rookie worth it for bettors in a Thursday night late slate?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Angels for Thursday, August 3.
Mariners vs Angels odds
Mariners vs Angels predictions
Bryan Woo is a short-leashed rookie pitcher who is trending in the wrong way with the Mariners looking for a Wild Card spot. He’s allowed 14 runs over his last 14-plus innings and is coming off a very concerning start.
Woo struck out zero batters vs. Arizona in his last start but also induced just five looking strikes and four swinging strikes over 73 pitches. That 12% CSW rate is about as low as you can get. He has a solid strikeout matchup vs. a high K% team in the Angels but if he’s burning pitches and already has a short leash, that Under 15.5 outs bet at -105 is very appetizing to bettors.
THE BAT is projecting 14.4 outs, which might not seem like a lot of value but getting this on the other side of the key number of 15 is huge and is accounted for in THE BAT projections. If the Mariners, who are in a dogfight to get into the Wild Card race, get 15 outs from Woo today, that could be enough even at 80 pitches.
The hitting conditions are good at Angel Stadium, with the wind blowing out and the rookie right-hander coming off a 73-pitch performance. THE BAT is projecting 82 pitches and there is no reason for the Mariners to push the struggling rookie with Seattle having a Top-5 bullpen.
In a game where Woo might try to overdo it vs. Shohei Ohtani on the other side, betting against him is where the best value is tonight.
Ohtani’s alt-strikeout market might also be worth a look tonight as bet365 is paying +220 for double-digit punchouts.
My best bet: Bryan Woo Under 15.5 outs recorded (-105 at bet365)
Mariners vs Angels same-game parlay
Bryan Woo Under 6.5 strikeouts (-175)
Shohei Ohtani 10+ strikeouts (+220)
Angels moneyline (-160
There are sadly no more outs in the bet365 SGPs but getting a pitcher who is projected for just over 80 pitches at Under 6.5 Ks is solid and worth the juice. He had just nine total non-foul strikes in his last start, which is unheard of.
Ohtani has the best K% matchup in all of baseball today and seemingly every decent starter vs. the Mariners has racked up the Ks. Ohtani could still hit this while failing to hit his Over 18.5 outs.
Getting Ohtani at -160 vs Bryan Woo seems like a gift.
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Mariners vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The books opened the Halos and Ohtani as a -155 home favorite and bettors have not seen much movement on the moneyline.
To me, I don’t see how Ohtani is just a -155 home favorite vs. Woo who has hit a rookie wall and owned a 3.98 ERA in Single-A last year before bypassing Triple-A this season and joining the big-league rotation in June.
Angel Stadium is playing as one of the best hitters parks on the board tonight and Woo is coming off an outing where he recorded zero punchouts over five innings of work. His last three starts have seen his ERA move from 3.63 to 4.96 as he’s given up 14 runs over 14-plus innings. Now he is a +135 road dog vs. an Ohtani coming off his best start of the year and pitching on extra rest? Give me Ohtani all day at -155.
The hitting conditions are great but Ohtani will be missing plenty of bats as the Mariners own one of the worst strikeout rates over the last 30 days (only one team has been worse in that duration). Ohtani has recorded at least eight punchouts in 11 of his 20 starts this year and in seven of his 11 home starts.
Yes, the Angels are also tied with a 27.5% K% over the last 30 days but the difference in stuff between Woo and Ohtani is like taking a Greyhound vs. an Uber Black. If one of these pitchers is going to take advantage of a great strikeout matchup, it will be the guy coming off a complete game and not the guy fighting for a roster spot and coming off a zero-strikeout performance.
Mickey Moniak is questionable after missing the last game and he has been an integral part of this LA offense, but Ohtani might only need a couple of runs of support tonight with how well his swing-and-miss stuff works against this Seattle offense.
Because of the high potential for Ks, it’s tough to get excited for the full game Over 8.5. This total opened 8, hit 8.5, but has been bet back down to 8 at sharper books as of noon today. If you’re looking to have some closing line value, the Under 8.5 is likely your best route but with Woo’s struggles and the winds blowing straight out.
I’m off this total and prefer to just back Ohtani in a matchup where I see both offenses and bullpens ranked evenly.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Angels have hit the moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Angels
Mariners vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, August 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, BSW |
Starting pitchers
Bryan Woo (1-3, 4.96 ERA): Woo’s recent struggles have him as a borderline big-leaguer right now as the rookie right-hander has given up 14 runs over his last 14-plus innings across three starts. His flyball rate has spiked and opponents have a 1.050 OPS vs. him over that stretch. He had zero strikeouts in his last start — 15 outs over 73 pitches but carries a 54/15 K:BB rate over 49 innings this year with eight home runs. The Mariners are 4-6 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 82 pitches, 14.2 outs, 5.21 strikeouts, and 2.71 earned runs.
Shohei Ohtani (9-5, 3.43 ERA): Ohtani is making his 21st start and coming off his one-hitter he threw vs. the Tigers back on July 27. He’ll be on seven days of rest and carries a 156/50 K:BB rate over 120-plus innings with 18 homers and 79 hits allowed. He has the fourth-best K/9 in baseball at 11.64/9 and the Angels are 13-7 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 101 pitches, 18 outs, 7.62 strikeouts, and 2.36 earned runs.
