The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their season-opening homestand by welcoming the up-and-coming Washington Nationals to town for three games.
The Blue Jays start the series by handing the ball to their breakout starter from last season, Bowden Francis. The 28-year-old had an incredible finish to the 2024 campaign, earning him a spot in this year’s rotation.
My Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks break down why I like Francis to rack up the punchouts in his 2025 debut.
Blue Jays predictions for March 31
- Best bet
Bowden Francis Over 5 strikeouts
(+100 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Bowden Francis Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 total bases
Mike Soroka Over 2.5 earned runs
(+425 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Light it up, Francis
Bowden Francis Over 5 strikeouts (+100 at BetVictor)
The 2024 season was an incredible journey for Bowden Francis. The 28-year-old made the Toronto Blue Jays roster out of camp, thanks to the potential he flashed that spring.
But his big-league career did not get off to a good start. Francis allowed 12 earned runs on 12 hits in 8 1/3 innings pitched over his first two starts before promptly getting moved to the bullpen and optioned back to the minors shortly after.
In June, Francis was recalled and worked as the team’s long reliever to mixed results. Then, August rolled around, and injuries forced him back into the rotation. He then proceeded to look like the best pitcher in baseball.
The right-hander recorded a 1.06 ERA, held opponents to a .301 OPS, and struck out 33.6% of batters faced over five starts, earning him the American League Pitcher of the Month Award.
He continued that strong play into September and ended the season ranked in the 76th percentile or better in both expected ERA and expected opponent batting average.
Francis makes his 2025 debut against the Washington Nationals, and he’ll have a great opportunity to begin the year with a strong start.
The Nationals are an up-and-coming team, complete with growing pains. The Nats dropped their first series of the season to the Philadelphia Phillies, and strikeouts played a major role.
Washington has the highest strikeout rate in baseball through Opening Weekend, getting punched out 34.5% of the time, striking out 39 times over three games.
The Nationals have improved since last season, but this is still a team that ranked 21st in OPS and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching in 2024.
Francis has a strikeout prop at 5.0 with the Over available at even money. That’s enough to have me firing. Francis should be effective enough to, at the very least, match this number on tonight.
Francis had five or more strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts in 2024 and had six or more six times.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Bowden Francis Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Total Bases
Mike Soroka Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Having a healthy Bo Bichette makes a huge difference. With a full spring training, the Blue Jays shortstop looks a lot like the guy who led the American League in hits twice in recent seasons.
Bichette has a .467 batting average and a 1.156 OPS though the first four games of the season and has collected hits in each of his last three games. He gets a good matchup against Nationals starter Mike Soroka.
Soroka is trying to resurrect his career with the Nationals but is coming off a tough season with the Chicago White Sox, where he ranked in the 22nd percentile in xERA. One of the biggest problems for Soroka was his command, as he ranked in the fourth percentile in walk rate.
So, I think there is an opportunity for Bo to get some hits and the Blue Jays to score against the Nationals starter because his aggressiveness tends to limit the walks, but he can take advantage of any mistakes Soroka leaves over the heart of the plate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Monday, March 31, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Bowden Francis (2024: 8-5, 3.30 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Michael Soroka (2024: 8-10, 4.74 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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