Mariners vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Javier Bests Ray, Leads Houston to W

The Seattle Mariners are 6-3 in their last nine games and will now look to keep it rolling with a road win over the Houston Astros.

However, Houston has won six of its last seven games, potentially making this a tough mountain to climb for the visiting Mariners. 

Will Seattle have a chance when it heads to Houston on Monday? Check out our Mariners vs. Astros MLB picks and predictions to find out. 

Mariners vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After opening as underdogs of +142, the Mariners can now be found from anywhere between +135 and +147. 

The total, meanwhile, has already moved from 8.5 down to 8 on every sportsbook. The Over will cost a little more to bet on, but it says a lot that it has moved. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mariners vs Astros predictions

• Prediction: Astros ML (-156)
• Prediction: Under 8 (+100)
• Best bet: Astros ML (-156)

Picks made on 6/6/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mariners vs Astros game info

• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Monday, June 6, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet Southwest, Root Sports

Mariners vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.93 ERA): Ray signed a big deal to be the true ace that Seattle was missing one season ago, but the lefty has just been a disaster to start the 2022 season. Ray has actually allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts, and he has been especially lousy on the road. When pitching away from home, Ray is 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA in 2022. 

Cristian Javier (3-2, 2.42 ERA): Javier has given up only two earned runs over his last 15 2-3 innings on the mound, and the righty now faces a Mariners team that he was great against on May 3. Javier pitched 5 1-3 innings of shutout ball in what was a 4-0 win for the Astros. He only gave up two hits in that contest in what was arguably his best start of the year. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mariners: Erik Swanson P (Out), Tom Murphy C (Out), Matt Festa P (Out), Mitch Haniger OF (Out), Evan White 1B (Out), Casey Sadler P (Out).
Astros: Blake Taylor P (Out), Jake Odorizzi P (Out), Jake Meyers OF (Out), Lance McCullers P (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 20-7 in their last 27 games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros

Mariners vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Only three teams in the league have a lower strikeout rate than the Astros against left-handed pitching this year, so Ray could be in trouble once again.

The lefty, who has been miserable in his first year with Seattle, could run into a lot of trouble punching out these Houston hitters. The Astros also happen to have the 10th-highest slugging percentage in baseball this year, and even if the lineup has undergone serious changes over the last year, it still presents a tough challenge.

Overall, it’s hard to back Ray coming into this game. Sure, the lefty is probably going to settle in at some point this season, but he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Now, he faces an Astros lineup that could be the next in line to fluster him.

One match-up to keep an eye on here is Ray taking on Jose Altuve. Altuve is 6-for-14 with a triple and three doubles against Ray in his career, and he’ll be a threat to do some real damage here. Jeremy Pena, who is batting .311 with two doubles, three homers, and six RBI in 45 at-bats against lefties this season, could also provide a big spark for Houston. 

The Astros are also sending Javier to the mound in this game, who was great against the Mariners in his May 3 start.

He pitched 5 1-3 shutout innings in that start and is just 2-1 with a 0.38 ERA at home in 2022, allowing just one earned run over 23 2-3 innings. The Mariners will have their work cut out for them.

Prediction: Astros moneyline (-156 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

Sometimes it’s just best to follow the early line movement when you can, and this total has gone from 8.5 down to 8 early on. Considering you can get even money to take the Under, that’s seemingly where you should put your money. 

While Ray has struggled in 2022, it’s not like he has been giving up an absurd amount of runs. As previously mentioned, he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.

For a normal pitcher, that wouldn’t exactly be dooming or anything. It’s only disappointing because he was given a lot of money by Seattle in the offseason, but, if Ray can limit the Astros to four or so in this game, Under bettors will be in great shape. That’s part of having Javier on the mound, who has been lights out this year. 

The Under also happens to be 6-0 in Seattle’s last six games against teams with winning records. It’s 8-1 in Houston’s last nine games against teams with lefty starters. 

Prediction: Under 8 (+100 at BetMGM)

Best bet

Not much separates these two teams on paper, but there’s a reason the Mariners are 23-30 and the Astros are sitting at 34-19. Seattle has just gotten some really disappointing early-season performances out of key players, and Ray is no exception to that.

Meanwhile, Houston continues to be a winning machine, even with Carlos Correa having left the team in the offseason. The Astros once again look like the right play tonight, as they have an advantage in the starting pitching department and a more trustworthy lineup. 

Houston also happens to be 49-27 on the moneyline when facing AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per game over the last two seasons. Seattle, meanwhile, is 1-12 when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 

Pick: Astros moneyline (-156 at WynnBET)

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