Mariners vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Tough Sailing for Elder

The Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves will begin a three-game series in Atlanta on Friday Night.

The Mariners have hit a flat spot. They've lost two straight, and neither was particularly close, with the Boston Red Sox defeating them by a combined score of 21-7. On the other hand, the Braves haven't been too much better lately. They will come into this matchup off a win against the Texas Rangers but had also suffered a two-game losing streak before that. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs. Atlanta Braves on Friday, May 19.

Mariners vs Braves odds

Mariners vs Braves predictions

This handicap, for me, is centered around finding ways to isolate and fade Bryce Elder. In some ways, he's a ticking time bomb. Yes, he can nearly dominate games, and he's been a strong pitcher for the Braves this season. But it comes with a warning. An expected ERA over 4 looms large, and a ground ball-reliant pitcher facing a team that doesn't hit into many ground balls sends off alarm bells. So, I'm picking the player in the Mariners lineup best suited to take advantage of Elder for my best bet. That player? Jarred Kelenic.

Kelenic has gone Over 1.5 bases in nearly half of his games this season and has upped that to 60% over his last 10 games. So, from either perspective, you'd like to look at it, there's value on a number of 133 which implies just a 42% success rate, while his numbers this season show us it's higher than that. 

I like Kelenic tonight because of his matchup against Elder. He has never faced the righty, but there are reasons to think he'll have success against him. One of those is his numbers against right-handed pitchers this season. He's been solid against them with a .255 iso (which places him just outside the Top 50 of the league's qualified hitters) and an OPS of .843, which is well above the league average.

The other reason is what pitch mix he's likely to see against Elder. 

He‘s a heavy sinker and slider pitcher, and everything else takes a backseat, as those two pitches make up more than 65% of his pitching. The key thing against Elder is to get balls in the air or hit hard, as he has a terrific ability to induce ground balls.

Unlucky for Elder, Kelenic has an incredible ability to do that against those pairs of pitches. Against sinkers, he's posted the third-highest batting average of any Mariner at .357. Against sliders, he's been able to hit the ball even harder with a hard-hit rate of 53% which is second-best behind only Julio Rodriguez. Adding to Kelenic's case is his solid contact clip that leads the team at 14%. You need that when trying to avoid ground balls; you also need to avoid topping balls which he does well. 

This is a great matchup tonight for Kelenic. The data is in our favor and really swings our way if he can see Elder a third time. Here's to hoping that happens, but even if not, +133 is too valuable to pass up. 

My best bet: Jarred Kelenic over 1.5 bases (+133)

Mariners vs Braves moneyline analysis

Tough for me to fade rookie phenom Bryce Miller in this spot – so I won't. Though it's not my best bet, I'm placing a unit on the Mariner's first five-inning money line at +115. 

His game against a similarly structured lineup in the Houston Astros has prepared him to at least manage his way through this start. It's not that I expect Miller to post five scoreless innings, but I expect him to outpitch Elder, and that's the crux of this handicap. As I mentioned, the Elder's clock of not having a true blowup start is dwindling. Look at virtually any advanced metric. You'll see it. Things like a hard-hit rate in the bottom 10% of baseball and an expected batting average could be much better.

On the other hand, Elder has gotten by with an elite groundball rate of 56%. I think some of that "luck" runs out tonight as he faces a lineup that hits ground balls at the sixth-lowest clip in the league. 

Mariners vs Braves Over/Under analysis

There are a few 8.5s out there, and if you can find one, it's worth a play. 

I projected this number at 9, so I still value it, but wouldn't play beyond it. I've mentioned why I expect the Mariners to succeed against Elder, but I haven't talked much about the "other Bryce." While it is insanely impressive to start the season, there has to be some regression that comes. That regression will likely go against one of the best offensive lineups in baseball.

We should only need a few runs from the Braves if the Mariners do what I expect them to. The Mariners have pounded right-handed starters and have seen their last five games against them all go Over. The Over is also 8-3 in the previous 11 meetings between these two teams. 

Mariners vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Bryce Miller (2-0, 0.47 ERA): Miller is absolutely a red-hot rookie who has done next to nothing wrong so far this season. Of course, you'd like some improvements on a barrel rate in the bottom end of baseball, but outside of that, it's hard to find much fault. There will be regression; it's impossible for that not to happen. But an expected ERA that sits at just under 3 – good for the Top 40 of the league – makes you wonder how good the rest of Miller's season can be. He's already seen some big bats when he faced off against the Houston Astros. In that matchup, all he did was post six scoreless innings and allow just two hits. Not bad for a rookie, eh?

Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.94 ERA): Elder's ERA has been misleading. The underlying metrics are mostly all bad, and 1.12 WHIP with a 4.56 expected ERA are strong indicators that negative regression is headed his way. It's more complex than that, though. Elder is an elite ground ball pitcher and has produced them at one of the highest clips of any pitcher this season. Plenty of ground ball-reliant pitchers have struggled this season with the shift changes, and that has yet to be the case for Elder. He won't have that regression against teams that rely on ground ball hits. It will happen against the opposite style of teams, and he's yet to see many this season. 

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Jarred Kelenic has over 1.5 bases in six of his last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Braves

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