The Seattle Mariners send 2021 AL Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray to the mound for the second time this season after opening with a win but with some question marks around his performance.
Betting lines are leaning in the Chicago White Sox's direction, even though southpaw Dallas Keuchel is making his first start of the season as he comes off the worst statistical year of his career.
Our free MLB picks and predictions try to sort through what may be a slugfest, with eyes focused on White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson.
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Mariners vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The moneyline opened with Mariners -110 on Tuesday afternoon but has since shifted to Seattle +105 at some books by the time of this writing. The total opened between 8.5 and 9.5, though 9 was the most commonly available number by Tuesday night. That's where it remains at most books on Wednesday morning, but 8.5 is still available albeit with a juiced vig around -125 or -130, though if you shop around you might find it as low as -115.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mariners vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 4/13/2022 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mariners vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, April 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Root Sports, NBCS-CHI
Mariners vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Robbie Ray (1-0, 1.29 ERA): The reigning AL Cy Young winner had a successful if less than impressive debut with the Mariners. He allowed just one run on three hits across seven innings of work to earn the win against the Minnesota Twins, but also issued four walks while striking out only five. Last year, Ray issued four or more walks only twice in 32 starts, curbing what had been his Achilles heel throughout most of his career. He'll look to correct things against a lineup that drew walks more in 9.6% of its plate appearances in 2021 (tied for fourth in MLB).
Dallas Keuchel (2021: 9-9, 5.28 ERA): The former AL Cy Young winner makes his season debut. The southpaw is coming off his worst full MLB season. He allowed a career-high 25 home runs in just 162 innings and posted a 5.23 FIP, which registered as barely better than his 5.28 ERA. Keuchel pitches to contact and opponents tend to oblige at this point in his career.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mariners: Ken Giles RP (Out), Evan White 1B (Out), Kyle Lewis OF (Out), Casey Sadler RP (Out).
White Sox: AJ Pollock OF (Out), Lucas Giolito SP (Out), Lance Lynn SP (Out), Yermin Mercedes C/1B (Out), Garrett Crochet RP (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out), Yoan Moncada 3B (Out), Jonathan Stiever SP (Out), Ryan Burr RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine road games versus a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. White Sox.
Mariners vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is a classic choice between the better starter or the better lineup. Mariners left-hander Robbie Ray has the decided edge over White Sox southpaw Dallas Keuchel. Ray throws harder, misses more bats, and is coming off a career season with the Blue Jays where he earned the AL Cy Young award. Now, he could certainly be a flash in the pan, but Keuchel isn't going to strike fear into the heart of this Mariners lineup.
The Mariners struggled as a unit against southpaws in 2021, slashing .231/.301/.394 with a collective 94 wRC+, but Keuchel doesn't miss bats in the way a power lefty hurler would. Besides, this Mariners lineup features some new faces. Leadoff man Adam Frazier fared worse against lefties than he did right-handers but still hit .274 in 181 PAs in 2021. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez had an atrocious 2021 season, but he has also handled left-handed pitching for the bulk of his career with a .259/.361/.489 slash line with 52 homers across 1,033 plate appearances.
Mitch Haniger owns lefties and Keuchel offers rookie Julio Rodriguez a chance to clear the cobwebs after a tough stretch to open his MLB career.
The White Sox also have a bullpen that is already down several arms after trading Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers, losing Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery, and also sending Joe Kelly and Ryan Burr to the IL.
That said, Chicago's bullpen hasn't been taxed too badly to open the year with relievers only accounting for 18 2-3 of their total innings through four games, so they should be rested in case Keuchel gets blasted to oblivion.
Speaking of being blasted into oblivion, the White Sox feast on left-handed pitching, which makes this decision trickier. First of all, Chicago is striking out at the lowest rate in the majors to start the season, which could make life miserable for Ray. They can stack the lineup with right-handers like Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, and Eloy Jimenez, not to mention switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal.
The White Sox posted a .775 OPS (sixth in MLB) and 113 wRC+ (fourth) against lefties in 2021, and that was without Robert and Jimenez for the majority of the campaign. Robert, especially, has been a force to open the year, batting .375 with a home run and four stolen bases as Chicago's No. 2 hitter behind leadoff man Anderson.
I'm avoiding the run line altogether on this game because it could easily be a 10-9 slugfest. And with the White Sox moneyline sitting at -120, I don't see the value in backing that number when they're trotting human hit machine Dallas Keuchel to the mound regardless of how well the lineup mangles lefty pitching.
If you're inclined to put anything on this game's outcome, sprinkle a bit on the Mariners moneyline +105 but it's not a full-throated endorsement.
Prediction: Mariners moneyline (+105 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The total of 8.5 is still available at some books but with the vig juiced to the Over at -120. When the White Sox last faced a lefty starter, they blasted Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal for five runs (four earned) on seven hits in four innings. They tacked on another five runs against the Tigers bullpen. Similarly, they handled Eduardo Rodriguez on Opening Day, scoring three times on four hits while drawing a pair of walks over four innings.
Ray is a different class of left-hander but if his command is as shaky as it was in his first start, and the White Sox will make him pay.
Likewise, Keuchel making his first start of the year is a big red flag as pitchers across the board had abbreviated springs and have been kept on relatively short leashes. Keuchel allowed the fifth-most base hits in baseball in 2021 despite pitching considerably fewer innings than those ahead of him on that less than sterling leaderboard. He may have a short hook in this one, but the damage may be done early on.
Prediction: Over 9 (+100 at Betway)
Best bet
I don't put a lot of stock into small sample sizes, so Tim Anderson being 1-for-7 lifetime against Robbie Ray doesn't concern me. He's hitting atop one of baseball's most potent lineups and is a contact machine. He doesn't draw walks, which for the purposes of a total bases prop is actually a good thing as those don't count to the total.
Anderson has appeared in only two games so far due to a suspension to open the year, but he's ripped off three hits so far, two of which were doubles. He hit .309 a year ago with 17 home runs and 48 extra-base hits. He made short work of left-handed pitching by hitting .319 with four homers and nine doubles in 143 plate appearances a year ago.
One of the keys to betting on total bases props is to focus on a batter who hits near the top of the lineup because they typically hit for high batting averages and will get more plate appearances than those lower in the order. Anderson fits that mould and is a threat to have a multi-hit game every time out in addition to his propensity for extra-base hits.
Pick: Tim Anderson Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at BetMGM)
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