[Editor's note: The betting preview was written prior to the Marlins scratching Pablo Lopez from today's start. Zach Thompson will instead get the start for Miami, making his MLB debut.]
The Miami Marlins snapped an eight-game losing skid with a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, but have to follow that up with a difficult road assignment at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston has won four in a row and is fresh off a sweep of the New York Yankees after winning Sunday night's extra-inning series finale, and will send a much-improved Nick Pivetta to the mound for this contest.
Here are our best MLB betting picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Red Sox on Monday, June 7 at 5:10 p.m. ET.
Marlins vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Monday, June 7, 2021
• Time: 5:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida, NESN
Marlins vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonBoston landed on FanDuel's odds board as a -172 favorite Sunday evening and dropped as low as -138, then rebounded all the way to -198, where the moneyline sits at 2:45 p.m. ET. The Marlins had a pitching change, from Pablo Lopez to Zach Thompson. The Red Sox are taking 83 percent of tickets and 85 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total made a big move, too, opening at 8.5 (Under -114) and stretching to 10 (Over -114), although the pitching change seems to have spurred that, with the Under taking 59 percent of tickets and cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMarlins vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Pablo Lopez (1-3, 2.82 ERA): The 25-year-old is enjoying another strong season with Miami following last year's breakout during the shortened 2020 campaign. Lopez has cut his ERA nearly a full run through 12 starts, has a career-low 1.15 WHIP, and a personal-best strikeout-to-walk rate. He's been shelled in two starts but has allowed two runs or fewer in his 10 other outings. The righty only lasted four innings in his last start against the Blue Jays but punched out a season-high-tying nine batters.
Nick Pivetta (6-1, 3.77 ERA): Like Lopez, Pivetta is also coming off a season-high-tying nine-strikeout performance. What makes that even more impressive is that he did it against the Houston Astros, who are the hardest team in baseball to punch out. Though the Red Sox lost that game, it was hardly Pivetta's fault, as he threw six innings of two-run ball and surrendered only three hits. It was a strong bounce-back outing for him after allowing a combined nine runs on 14 hits in his previous two starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Marlins: Garrett Cooper 1B (Questionable), Miguel Rojas SS (Out), Brian Anderson 3B (Out).
Red Sox: J.D. Martinez DH (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 5-0 in Pivetta's last five starts against a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
The Red Sox weren't shown much respect coming into the year but have the second-best winning percentage in the American League as they get set to play their 60th game of the season.
Boston held down first place in the AL East for a chunk of the earlier part of the season and has only relinquished that lead because the Rays have reeled off wins in 19 of their last 23 games. While Boston dropped to second as a result of Tampa's hot run, it is still on a 7-3 stretch over its last 10 and enters Monday just a game back in the East after taking three straight from New York at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox can trim that in half with the Rays idle today.
The big reason behind the BoSox's sparkling play is their potent lineup that includes young left-handed hitters Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo, veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, and MVP candidate Xander Bogaerts. That group has powered Boston to Top-5 marks in runs, batting average, and OPS.
But they've also gotten better-than-expected pitching out of their rotation, including from Pivetta.
Though Pivetta's control has been shaky, he's striking out batters more frequently than ever and has a minuscule home-run rate thanks to an exceptional four-seam fastball that's not getting touched. That's led to career-best marks in ERA (3.70) and FIP (3.24) and those numbers aren't going to balloon in this make-up game against a Marlins team that's a bottom-third club in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus and is Top 5 in strikeout rate.
This is a plus matchup for Pivetta, who has helped the Red Sox win nine of the 11 games he has started. On Monday, he'll make it 10.
PREDICTION: Boston (-140)
Over/Under pick
The Marlins have a collective on-base percentage under .300 and have some of the weakest power in the game, ranking ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates in slugging, while sitting third from the bottom in ISO, which measures how often hits go for extra bases. Combine that with Pivetta's ability to generate swings and misses, and Miami is going to find it challenging to put up a crooked number.
But Pivetta's counterpart can bring it, too. While he'll be going up against a much more imposing offense, Lopez has silenced opposing teams more often than not this season and has an ability to go deep in this game. He has thrown seven frames three separate times this year and has hit the six-inning mark in another three.
Lopez is one of the top starters in the majors at avoiding hard contact and getting batters to chase thanks to a deep five-pitch repertoire. He can generate whiffs with his hard stuff and breaking pitches and despite only going four innings in his last start, Lopez amassed an impressive 17 swinging strikes (a season-high) against Toronto's elite offense.
Hitters will have a tough time in this game for as long as these pitchers are on the mound, and both clubs have strong bullpens to turn to after their starters.
Neither group has been hurt much by the long ball, while Boston's relief corps is among the best at punching hitters out, and Miami's issues fewer free passes than any team in baseball. It adds up to Top-5 ranks in FIP for both clubs, and contributes to why we think the Under is the play today.
PREDICTION: Under 9 (+105)
Marlins vs Red Sox betting card
- Boston (-140)
- Under 9 (+105)
Picks made on 6/06/2021 at 8:26 p.m. ET
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