Max Scherzer Odds and Props World Series Game 3: Mad Max Keeps Things Quiet In the Desert

The Texas Rangers should be down 2-0 in this series but are heading to Arizona tied 1-1. With a shaky bullpen waiting in the shadows, the Rangers will hope to get solid innings out of Max Scherzer, and our MLB picks think they will.

Kenny Ducey - Betting Analyst at Covers
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Oct 30, 2023 • 18:00 ET • 4 min read

The World Series is heating up, with both teams splitting the first two games in Texas. Now, the series shifts to the spacious Chase Field, where a former Diamondbacks' hurler will look to put the hurt on the MLB odds favorites.

I've taken a look at all of the Max Scherzer odds for Game 3 between the Rangers and Diamondbacks to help you out when making your MLB picks!

Don't forget to look at our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 3 picks, as well as our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks props.

Max Scherzer Game 3 prop bets

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Max Scherzer Game 3 prop pick

Over 14.5 outs (-105)

Max Scherzer, for all intents and purposes, has pitched acceptably this October. He was thrust into action after months away from the mound, only to take the ball against one of the strongest offenses in baseball and pitch to middling results.

Scherzer, who had issues with the long ball and the walk this season, ran into a team that has excelled in both departments for years. He was particularly victimized by Houston’s more experienced hitters like Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu, but he should be in a much better position on Monday.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are not a team that is going to threaten to hit many home runs here. Their 1.23 ground out-to-air out ratio this postseason is the second highest of any team that we’ve seen — next to just the Miami Marlins — and in the World Series that number has jumped to 2.00 through two games.

The ball is going to come back on the ground, and it's going to come back into play in general given Arizona’s low 18.4% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate this postseason.

That should make this a dream spot for Scherzer, and with plenty of swings from the Diamondbacks, he should have no issues working deep into this game. He has arguably the top infield defense in baseball behind him and should look at his best here.

Prop: Over 14.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)

Max Scherzer Game 3 same-game parlay

Under 9.5

D-Backs Under 0.5 runs first inning

Pfaadt 4+ Ks

You’ve simply got to love crafting same-game parlays with pitchers. You can either back a pitcher to fail miserably, betting on hits, walks, and runs allowed, or you can bet on strikeouts. I don’t want to do either here with Scherzer, rather I want to bet on his general effectiveness in holding the Diamondbacks offense at bay.

So, that’s why we have to get creative here. Scherzer did look great in the first inning of his first postseason start and should match up well with the top of Arizona's order given its inability to hit home runs, particularly at this giant ballpark. That’s why I like him to make it out of the first unscathed, but I also love the other pitcher.

I’ll take the Under in a game I expect Brandon Pfaadt to thrive in. He’s turned into a real strikeout pitcher this October with 22 Ks against 66 batters — equating to a 33.3% K-rate which is downright elite. Texas is striking out 24.7% of the time in this series and I think it should struggle in a park that is less friendly to teams such as themselves who love to hit the ball in the air.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Kenny Ducey - Covers
Betting Analyst

Kenny Ducey has worked in sports media for more than 10 years and began his journey as a credentialed reporter with Fordham University's WFUV Sports before moving on to Sports Illustrated. There, he wrote about baseball, basketball, and tennis - twice covering the NBA Finals.

He's been in the betting space for seven years, and has established himself as a top expert in MLB and tennis handicapping with brands like Tennis Channel, NBC Sports, and DraftKings. He's also been a frequent guest on betting shows such as MLB's Bettor's Eye and Tennis Bets Live.

Kenny has a knack for identifying underappreciated pitchers and tennis players as moneyline underdogs and credits his unique data analysis and hours of watching sports as the biggest reasons for success through the years. His best advice to bettors? Watch the games, trust your eye, and always question the public narrative.

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