The Atlanta Braves will look to extend their early lead in the National League East as they host the New York Mets to open a four-game series on Monday night.
New York seems to have stabilized after a slow start, winning two of three against the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. Atlanta swept the defending National League Champion Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-game series to build a 2.5-game lead in the NL East. MLB odds greatly favor the buzzsaw Braves.
Tonight, the Braves will turn to veteran Charlie Morton as they look to continue their recent dominance over New York. We’ll discuss whether that trend will continue in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Braves on April 8.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves predictions
Along with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves came into 2024 as one of the two clear favorites to win the World Series odds. Atlanta has built a +26 run differential on the season, the second-best figure in the majors. With a talented lineup and deep pitching staff, this should be a formidable team in October.
The New York Mets looked a little better this weekend, but are still struggling to find a way to win games consistently. New York is scoring a putrid 2.78 runs per game, the second-worst mark in the majors. Injuries to Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill have fractured the Mets’ pitching staff, forcing them to look elsewhere for starters, such as former Brave Julio Teheran, who they just signed on Friday.
The Braves are the far better team and also have a huge advantage on the mound tonight with veteran Charlie Morton taking the ball. Atlanta crushed the Mets last season, winning 10 of their 13 matchups and outscoring New York 96-54 in those games.
The Braves have a favorable pitching matchup at home against a weak opponent that they have dominated in recent years. I’m not only taking Atlanta to win tonight but also to cover the run line.
My best bet: Braves -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay
Braves -1.5
Under 10.5
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2+ total bases
The Braves should have their way with the Mets, but I don’t think we’re looking at an offensive explosion — at least not on both sides. That’s why I’m also taking a bet on the Under at 10.5 runs to start our same-game parlay. The Mets have gone Under 10 runs in seven of their first nine games this season, and even Atlanta has only gone Over that total in half of its games so far.
Let’s also throw in a bet on Ronald Acuna Jr. to get at least two total bases tonight. Acuna has already done so in five of his first eight games and is facing a vulnerable pitcher in Teheran — who allowed 13 home runs in 71 2/3 innings with the Brewers last season — making him a prime candidate for a strong offensive game.
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Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened Monday’s game as a -212 favorite. As of early Monday, the consensus moneyline is now closer to Braves -200, with some books offering -190.
- The Braves have made nearly three units on the moneyline for bettors this season. The Mets are down over four units on the year.
- The total for today’s game opened at 9.5 runs. The Over/Under has since moved to 10 runs, with -110 available on both sides at most sites.
- The Over holds a 5-2 advantage in Braves games this season. The Under has gone 6-3 when the Mets play this year.
Trend to know
The Braves are 7-2 in Morton’s last nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
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Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, April 8, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, Bally Sports South |
Starting pitchers
Julio Teheran (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The Mets signed Teheran on Friday and immediately pressed him into service, as their rotation has already lost two expected starters to shoulder strains. Last season, Teheran went 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA for the Milwaukee Brewers, showing solid control but allowing 1.6 homers — and striking out just 6.3 batters — per nine innings.
Charlie Morton (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Now 40 years old, Morton continues to be the reliable, better-than-league-average pitcher that he has been throughout his 17-season career, with the Braves more interested in his postseason pedigree than his day-to-day success. Morton started 2024 strong, tossing 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Chicago White Sox last Monday.
