The first ever on-campus College Football Playoff game will kick off in one of the most historic stadiums in the sport when the Indiana Hoosiers visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Friday night. The hype and hyperbole will be through the roof for the occasion, but the setting should be legitimately noted in one regard.
My Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions recognize the value of the latest home game in Irish history and the temperature that comes with an 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff on Friday, Dec. 20. Any college football picks should see that chill coming.
Indiana vs Notre Dame predictions
- Spread pick: Notre Dame -7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Notre Dame moneyline (-295 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Under 51.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Indiana vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 51.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Temperatures on Friday night in South Bend are going to dip into the 20s, perhaps the low 20s. Every one of these players is fine living in that weather, but few of them have ever played in it.
It will make for a slower night, in some ways a heavier night. A cold football is harder for a quarterback to grip, and it's heavier, literally speaking. Cold-weather football lends itself to more physical teams, ones that win in the trenches and ones that run the ball.
Far and away, that is Notre Dame in this matchup. The Irish should dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage. They have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, paired with arguably the best passing defense.
The latter half of that should be self-explanatory. The Hoosiers will already struggle to throw the ball a bit in the cold air, especially if lake winds carry past nightfall. Doing so against a defense that has not allowed for a single successful passing attack this season is a bold hope that should temper any Indiana hopes of a basketball-ian Cinderella run.
No one has successfully thrown against Notre Dame.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 18, 2024
Louisville threw for 3 yards less per attempt than the rest of their season.
USC was undone by multiple pick-6s.
Taking the Under 50.5 or Under 51.5 is an endorsement of Notre Dame shutting down Indiana's offense. https://t.co/2G9a7SVmat pic.twitter.com/idFpNx4MMf
Really, no one has successfully thrown on Notre Dame. Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt in South Bend, down from his rate of 9.2 the rest of the year. USC ended up with 360 yards and three passing touchdowns, undone by two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Indiana’s passing attack is better than either of those, but when it played Michigan and Ohio State — both passing defenses worse than Notre Dame’s — Kurtis Rourke went a combined 25-for-46 (54.3%) for 274 yards, a mere 6.0 yards per pass attempt. That should only worsen Friday night.
The second half of this Under is that there's a chance, a slim chance, that the Irish struggle to run. Indiana has not faced this potent of a ground attack — it has hardly faced any potent ground attacks — but the analytics behind the Hoosiers’ rush defense are sound, ranking No. 11 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against and No. 3 in rushing success rate against, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
Even if those feats are exposed a bit, it should slow Notre Dame, relatively speaking. Which is all to say, Indiana’s offensive strength looks doomed in this matchup, while Notre Dame’s offensive strength could also be somewhat slowed.
Indiana vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 51.5
Notre Dame moneyline
Mitchell Evans Over 19.5 receiving yards
Without a Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown available in BetMGM’s same-game parlay offerings, and without a single “Under” on a player prop available in BetMGM’s same-game parlay, a less juicy offering must be concocted.
The surest thing in this game is a Jeremiyah Love touchdown for the 13th straight game, and the next surest thing is prolific production does not occur in this cold.
But with that lowered variance, more trust can be placed in Notre Dame to win. The only reason the spread is not included is that a hook of -7.5 could be jeopardized by garbage-time Indiana production. The Irish victory should not be threatened.
And without any player prop Unders available, an alternate Mitchell Evans prop makes sense. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard does not excel at pushing the ball downfield in the first place. In this weather, he should look for his big-framed tight end more often.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Indiana vs Notre Dame odds
Indiana vs Notre Dame live odds
Indiana vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Indiana vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -8.5
- Indiana vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Indiana +240, Notre Dame -300
- Indiana vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Indiana vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- Notre Dame opened as an 8.5-point favorite two weeks ago and that fell to -7.5 that same afternoon. This spread has not genuinely moved since.
- Some sportsbooks have considered -7 with juice toward Indiana, but for the most part, they move back to -7.5.
- This total opened at 51.5 and fell to 50.5 that same afternoon. It has toggled back to 51.5 a few times.
- In terms of key numbers in total betting, 51 only shows up if thinking there will be at least three made field goals. Cold weather makes long kicks less likely, not to mention the Irish have been struggling with field goals for much of the season since Mitch Jeter suffered a nagging groin injury.
Indiana vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Since losing outright to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has not only rattled off a 10-game winning streak; it has also gone 9-1 against the spread, including 8-0 in its last eight games. The Irish have exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 14.45 points in their last 10 games, even including that ATS loss, which was by merely three points. Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Notre Dame.
Indiana vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
| Date: | Friday, 12-20-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC, ESPN |
Indiana vs Notre Dame latest injuries
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Indiana vs Notre Dame weather
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