The New Orleans Bowl might be underappreciated in the lead-up to the first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff, but the Georgia Southern Eagles and the Sam Houston State Bearkats will not care about that lack of attention. They will show up in the Superdome with intent this week.
Motivation sides with the underdog, but my Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State predictions will still back the favorite, largely because of success where it matters most. Kickoff comes at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, December 19.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston prediction and best bet
My best bet
Georgia State -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Let’s start with a PSA, a bit of Gambling 101: Bowl games are high in variance and low in predictability. They are ideal holiday programming for midday lulls when you are not working that hard.
Yes, you. And they can be miserable for your bankroll if you get out over your skis.
Bet small. Enjoy the chaos.
The New Orleans Bowl may be an outstanding example of the difficulties in predicting these games. Looking at the Covers opt-out tracker — the Sam Houston State list is long. Just glancing at it, some names pop out.
But it increasingly looks like both may play, as may many of those names in the portal. This is Sam Houston’s first-ever bowl game, marking only the Bearkats’ second season at the FBS level. There is a want to notch this win.
How many of those players will play is difficult to nail down, at best. Hence the difficulty in predicting bowl games.
But even if approaching this game like both rosters will be intact, Georgia Southern should be favored by more than -4.5. The biggest reason this spread is so close is because of that intangible Sam Houston motivation. Can it be logically countered by the intangible effect of losing your head coach? If so, then we are back to the original thought that the Eagles should be favored by more than -4.5.
The Bearkats’ offense is simply too miserable to be trusted to keep up with Clay Helton’s passing designs. The nicest thing that can be said about Sam Houston’s offense is that it ranks No. 50 in the country in late-down success rate at 43.1%. However, the Bearkats face late downs far too often, and when failing on more than half of them, repeated third downs become repeated punts.
The rosters and motivations of the New Orleans Bowl are in flux. What will not be in flux is the Bearkats’ greatest and persistent weakness: their offense.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Georgia Southern -4.5
Jeyvon Ducker anytime touchdown
Under 48.5
Truthfully, Ducker might not play. The thought of him doing so, despite being in the transfer portal, could be a smokescreen.
But if he does — and if needing to offer a guess on that, it would be that Ducker plays — he should have an emphasized role. Ducker has been with the Bearkats for only this season, a Memphis transfer beforehand. If he is playing in this bowl game for a team he has not been with that long, it emphasizes the want-to.
And that want-to may cover up Sam Houston’s greatest failing for a possession. But as long as the Bearkats cannot be trusted to convert where it matters most, this Under should be pondered.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston odds
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston live odds
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston opening odds
- Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston spread: Sam Houston +6
- Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston moneyline: Georgia Southern -225, Sam Houston +185
- Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston spread and Over/Under analysis
- Georgia Southern opened as a 6-point favorite two weeks ago, and that even climbed to -6.5 before some buyback began.
- That buyback coincided with increased optimism about Sam Houston’s roster availability, though that creates a logic that the buyback is aggressive. The original +6 did not inherently factor in all the debated transfers, so if that was a valid number, how much buyback should there ever have been?
- This total opened at 46.5 and waited a few days before jumping to 48.5.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston betting trend to know
Less a trend and more a bowl-season reality: Georgia Southern head coach Clay Helton needs to build momentum heading into his fourth season in Statesboro, while Sam Houston is currently operating under an interim coach who knows he will not get this job. Motivation can be a tricky beast, and it can be cut in many ways. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-19-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston latest injuries
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Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston State weather
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