The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet in the early afternoon after Wednesday's game was postponed due to rain. The clubs split the first two games of this series, which was initially a four-game set before the rainout — the postponement will be made up in September.
With an uninspiring pitching matchup on tap, both lineups will be itching to get to the plate again. We’ll break it all down in our MLB picks and full Mets vs. Braves predictions on Thursday, April 11.
Mets vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Offense has been on display in the first two games of this series. That’s not a surprise for the Atlanta Braves, who lead the league with 6.90 runs per game and will likely stay on or near the top of that list for the entire season. But the New York Mets started the year struggling to get anyone across the plate, and have now scored 5.5 runs per game over their last four.
The New York breakout was led by Brandon Nimmo, who went 4-for-4 with two homers and five RBIs on Monday night. Pete Alonso went deep in Tuesday night’s loss as part of a two-hit evening. Francisco Lindor is still struggling, hitting just .089 on the year, but the rest of the Mets lineup seems to be breaking out of a shockingly slow start.
The Braves are also swinging hot bats in this series, but that’s nothing new for a roster that hits better than most individual players. Jarred Kelenic is off to a torrid start, batting .462. Marcell Ozuna has five homers and 13 RBI, while Orlando Arcia, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies are all hitting well over .300. Atlanta can and does hit against anyone it plays.
This afternoon's pitching matchup won’t do much to slow these teams down. The Mets are turning to a solid starter in Jose Quintana, but the 35-year-old has a 5.94 FIP this year, signaling a huge regression to come after two starts where he managed to avoid giving up many runs. And even if his peripherals were spotless, the Braves are too deep and dangerous to expect much success.
The Braves are starting a pitcher with even more question marks. Allan Winans is a 28-year-old who made six starts for Atlanta last year but still has his rookie eligibility. Winans went 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA in 2023, and while he performed well in the minors last season, his ceiling is probably landing as a spot starter or long reliever at the major league level. A resurgent Mets lineup should be able to tee off.
Put it all together, and we’re once again looking at a high-scoring game. For a third time, MLB odds have set the total at 9.5 runs, and that’s still not enough. I’m taking the Over again.
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay
Over 9.5
Braves moneyline
Marcell Ozuna 1+ RBI
The Braves are the better team regardless of any pitching questions, so it makes sense to include an Atlanta moneyline bet to go with our Over for this same-game parlay. In addition, I’m taking Ozuna to pick up an RBI tonight.
Ozuna already has 13 RBI and has tallied at least one in six of his last nine games, including the first two matchups with the Mets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves live odds
Mets vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-125) | Atlanta -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: New York +169 | Atlanta -185
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125)
Mets vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened today’s game as a -185 favorite. The consensus moneyline now has the Braves between -165 and -180, while the Mets are available between +140 and +150.
- The Braves are up more than 1.5 units on the moneyline this year. The Mets have lost bettors three units on the moneyline this season.
- The total for this afternoon's game opened at 9.5. That remains the consensus Over/Under, with most books offering -125 on the Under, while even money was readily available on the Over.
- The Over is 7-2 in Atlanta’s games this season. The Under has a slight 6-5 edge when the Mets play this year.
Mets vs Braves trend
The Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Allan Winans (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Mets vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
