Mets vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: Carrasco Brings the Heat

The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals finish up a three-game set at Busch Stadium on Wednesday afternoon. The Mets look to sweep the series and increase their lead atop the NL East, while the Cardinals will try to snap out of an ugly hitting slump.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close game with MLB betting lines opening this game as a pick'em before shifting to favor the Mets at -130.

Here are our best free Mets vs. Cardinals MLB picks and predictions for April 27, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET.

Mets vs Cardinals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board as a pick'em but money has come in on the Mets, moving their line to around -130 at most books. The total has stayed steady at 7 at most books, although some opened at 7.5 and juiced towards the Under before ticking down. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Cardinals predictions

• Prediction: Mets ML (-124)
• Prediction: Under 7 (+100)
• Best bet: Mets ML  (-124)

Picks made on 4/27/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Cardinals game info

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• First pitch: 1:15 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet New York, Bally Sports Midwest

Mets vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 1.47 ERA): The 35-year-old is off to a fantastic start to the season and looks fully healthy after offseason elbow surgery and an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. Carrasco has a sizzling 0.60 WHIP and .141 OBA in three starts, and in his last outing, he held the Giants to two runs and four hits through 7 2-3 innings.

Steven Matz (2-1, 5.27 ERA): The longtime Met is playing in his first year with the Cardinals and has looked much better after surrendering seven runs to the Pirates in his first game of the season. He followed up on that ugly outing by throwing 5 2-3 scoreless innings versus the Brewers, and in his last start, he limited the Reds to one run across 5 innings, despite also surrendering seven hits and walking two.

The lefty was decent with the Blue Jays last season, pitching to a 3.82 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .265 OBA in 29 starts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Cardinals: Alex Reyes RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals

Mets vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets blanked the Cardinals 3-0 last night to improve their record to an MLB-best 14-5. The Cards mustered just three hits in that contest and are in the midst of a hitting slump. Over the last week, St. Louis is dead-last in the majors with an OPS of .502 while plating just 14 runs in seven games. 

That's bad news as they face off against Mets starter Carlos Carrasco, who has been dealing to start the year. Carrasco is sixth in the NL in ERA+ (255) while holding opposing batters to an OPS of .429. After a few years where he was recovering from Leukemia and dealing with various injuries, Carrasco looks like he's back to the form that made him one of baseball's most reliable starters from 2015 to 2018. 

The Cards respond with former Met Steven Matz on the mound, and the lefty has been solid in his previous two starts after an ugly opening game versus the Pirates. Matz has always been a mixed bag and his last three full seasons have seen pretty consistent numbers, with an ERA hovering around 4.00 and a WHIP just above 1.30. 

He'll be going up against a formidable Mets team that features a scary slugger in Pete Alonso, a reliable contact hitter in Jeff McNeil, and four-time All-Star Francisco Lindor, who is playing up to that massive contract he signed last year. With Eduardo Escobar and Brandon Nimmo also providing pop in the middle of that lineup, the Mets rank eighth in the majors in OPS (.731) and sixth in runs per game (4.68). 

New York has the superior starting pitcher, a more productive lineup, and its recent form has been much better. Getting the Mets at this price looks like a steal. 

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The total is sitting at a low 7, but with how dominant Carrasco has been and the Cardinals going ice-cold at the plate, the Under looks like the play today. While Matz's play has been predictably up-and-down, the Mets haven't been hitting the ball well against southpaws.

Both bullpens have also looked sharp to begin the year, with St. Louis relievers pitching to a collective 2.52 ERA with a .200 OBA and Mets relievers posting a 3.29 ERA with a .207 OBA. 

With the Under 7-1 in the Cardinals' last eight games, we're leaning in that direction again this afternoon.

Prediction: Under 7 (+100 at bet365)

Best bet

Frankly, we were a bit surprised to see this line so close when it hit the board and even with money coming in on the Mets, there's still plenty of value in grabbing them at anywhere near -130.

Yes, it's still early in the season, but the Mets have been one of the most impressive teams around and have surged to third on the World Series futures board.

They've won 11 of their last 14 games, have a stud on the mound in Carrasco and they're going up against a Cardinals squad that has been the worst-hitting team in the majors over the last week. We'll gladly grab them at this price.

Pick: Mets moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic