On Friday afternoon, the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets play Game 2 of their final series before the All-Star break.
The Mets are rolling into the All-Star break, taking two of three off divisional foe Atlanta, and opening up this series with a blowout 8-0 win. The Cubs have been trending in the other direction. They've lost six straight games, being swept in two consecutive series. Chicago arrives at this game with a 34-55 record.
Who will take the second game of this series? Find out with our Mets vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for Friday, July 15, 2022.
(Editor's Note: This game has been postponed due to poor weather, with a make-up game scheduled for Saturday, July 16 at 8:05 p.m. ET.)
Mets vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened up as a solid -135 favorite, and the Cubs quickly took some money. Now the Mets have fallen to around the -120 range, with the Cubs returning at +105. The total opened up at 8.5 and has remained there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 7/15/2022 at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, July 15, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Marquee Sports Network
Mets vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (7-2, 2.63 ERA): Walker has been lucky this season. His pitch quality suggests he should have closer to a 3.5 ERA than his current one. His hard-hit rate ranks near the bottom of the league, which tells you it's more of when than if some negative regression will come. Walker is coming off one of his better starts of the season.
Against the Miami Marlins, he went seven innings, giving up just three hits and surrendering no runs. Walker uses two pitches primarily: the cutter and split-finger. That splitter pitch has been devastating and produced a -11 run value, one of the best in baseball. Walker has done a pretty good job this season of making hitters chase with a rate in the Top 20% of baseball.
Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.91 ERA): Stroman is pretty much the antithesis of Walker this season. His splitter has been the pitch he's struggled with most, and he's due for some positive regression. What's hurt Stroman the most is an awful hard-hit rate near the bottom of all pitchers in baseball. As a result, we've seen a lot of uneven performances from Stroman. His last three games are a perfect example of that.
He's coming off a scoreless four-inning performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers but proceeding that was a nightmare. In that start, he gave up nine earned runs in four innings to the St Louis Cardinals. In addition, it was the first time he had given up multiple home runs this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Chicago Cubs have lost six straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs
Mets vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
I'm intrigued by the value of the Chicago Cubs today and will be playing them. Their underdog price makes sense on the surface, but they have value today at their current price.
Backing Stroman is truly a roll of the dice — he's had a few dominant periods at times this year. He posted a 1.5 ERA in May and faced opponents such as the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox. One of the lasting images from this season for him so far is him being hammered against the Cardinals. But after that outing, Stroman hit the IR and didn't have a start for over a month. When he returned, he faced the Dodgers —one of the most potent lineups in baseball — and held them scoreless. It's hard to estimate how long he'll go in this one as he recovers from injury, but the Cubs bullpen is in reasonably good shape.
On the flipside, with Walker on the bump, the Cubs hitters have a decent matchup, as they've hit righties better than the Mets have on the season. That trend has only been elevated over the last few weeks with a .220 xBA against and .280 OPS. Additionally, that devastating split-finger that Stroman throws is a pitch the Cubs hit well. The real edge comes against Stroman's secondary pitch, and that's the cutter. Today, Chicago will have four players in the lineup batting over .300 against it. The best of those is Patrick Wisdom, who has a .412 batting average and .824 slugging against it this season. It's hard to pass up a team at plus money whose best hitters excel at hitting one of the opposing pitchers' favorite pitches.
My projections make the Cubs a slight favorite here. Quite a few things are working in their favor from a trends perspective. Teams on losing streaks of five or more playing in a home game as an underdog of +125 or less perform pretty well. They've cashed at around 60% over the last three seasons. That, coupled with the even bullpens and two pitchers that are much more even than it appears, gives me enough to take the Cubs here.
Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+110 at Circa)
Over/Under analysis
If the weather were ideal today, I'd confidently be grabbing the Over here, but with rain in the forecast though, it causes a bit more hesitation. However, winds will still be blowing out at Wrigley, and there may not be another ballpark in baseball where the winds affect the total more. So, I'll be grabbing the Over today.
Although I prefer one of these pitchers over the other today, it's undeniable that both have struggled with hard-hit balls. Although Walker's ERA hasn't reflected it, he is due to give up some runs. Walker has a hard-hit rate that ranks in the Bottom 25% of pitchers and an average exit velocity that follows suit. Chicago ranks near the middle of baseball in average exit velocity, with a few guys in the lineup capable of punishing Walker. It's a very similar story on the other side as well. Though Stroman is due for some nice regression, you still have to expect he will have a few hard-hit balls while making a few mistakes, and with the weather a factor, those mistakes are magnified.
My projections don't see much of an edge here. The Over is priced at -115 at its best number, and my projections have it priced at -112. The wind should make the difference, though. A couple of fly balls that don't usually go out may go out today, and both of these pitchers struggle with hard-hit balls. I likely won't bet this, but the Over is the best way to go if you're looking for a side.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
I'm going to take a flier on Patrick Wisdom today because the price is too attractive, given his matchup. It's the most significant edge on this game from any perspective. While I still would have it priced at plus money, it's far away from the current number we can get.
At the onset, I mentioned that Wisdom excels against cutters. I didn't talk about the amount of data that follows those impressive numbers. He's seen over 180 cutters on the season and is hitting for an average of over .400. There's not much else to talk about here. Wisdom is getting a pitcher on the mound that throws a cutter most of the time, and he's demolished them this season. It's hard for me to turn that down.
Patrick Wisdom prop: Over 1.5 bases (+155)
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