Two of the top teams in the majors face off on Wednesday afternoon with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the New York Mets. This is the final contest in a three-game set at Dodger Stadium, and the Mets took the first contest on Monday before the home side won 5-0 last night thanks to a gem from Clayton Kershaw.
MLB odds opened with the Dodgers at +110, marking the first time since 2018 that they've been underdogs at home. Here are my best free Mets vs. Dodgers MLB picks and predictions for April 19.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers predictions
The Dodgers have been incredible at home over the last few years, but today's squad has some serious issues when it comes to pitching. Starter Noah Syndergaard is a shell of his former All-Star self after missing almost two years with an elbow injury.
In 2019, Syndergaard was averaging 97.8 mph on his four-seamer and 97.3 mph on his sinker, but those numbers have fallen to 92.6 mph and 92 mph, respectively, this year.
He has pitched to a 5.63 ERA with an opponent batting average of .273 in three starts, and the Dodgers' bullpen has been even worse. Their relievers are second-last in the majors in OBA (.289) and rank 26th in WHIP (2.49).
While the Dodgers have been hitting with plenty of power this season, they've been inconsistent at the plate and are batting just .235. They'll also be missing All-Star Mookie Betts, who is on leave for the birth of his second child. Also out is catcher Will Smith, who has a concussion. Betts finished fifth in the NL MVP voting last year, and there's a big gap between Smith (.333 BA) and backup Austin Barnes (1-for-22 at the plate).
The Mets have been underachieving at the dish, but they have a clear edge on the mound. Sure starter Max Scherzer struggled in his first two outings this year, but the future Hall of Famer is coming off a terrific debut season for the Mets, and pitched a one-hitter across five innings his last time out.
My best bet: Mets moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
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Mets vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
These clubs are tied with the Astros for the third-best World Series odds, but there have to be some concerns about this Dodgers team and whether they should have done more in the offseason.
The Dodgers are second in the majors in home runs (32) while ranking third in OPS (.801), but it's been feast or famine with their hitting. L.A. is plating 7.45 runs per game in its nine wins, but has generated just 3.22 runs per game in nine defeats.
Their bullpen has been a major issue, and Syndergaard is likely the weak link in their rotation.
New York's loss to the Dodgers last night snapped a five-game winning streak for the Mets.They are just 21st in the majors in OPS (.704) but should be better with sluggers like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil at the top of their order. They've at least been drawing plenty of walks, but need to do a better job of driving the ball.
Scherzer is 38-years-old, but he's still throwing with decent velocity and had a sizzling 2.29 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP in 23 starts with the Mets last year.
Mets vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
I mentioned that the Mets' bats have been struggling, and they are 25th in hard-hit rate while ranking 23rd in barrel rate. That said, they've been getting on base thanks to the highest walk rate in the majors.
It will be interesting to see if they can get walks today since Syndergaard has been extremely effective with his control. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans, putting the ball over the middle of the plate might prevent walks, but it also results in plenty of hits.
Once those guys get on base, expect plenty of action from runners with Syndergaard routinely one of the worst pitchers in the majors at preventing stolen bases.
Scherzer is coming off a dominant start against the Padres, but he was rocked for three homers in his previous outing versus Milwaukee. When he's on, Mad Max can mow down anybody, but he also gives up hard contact. His back issues are also a bit of a cause for concern after he missed his previous scheduled start.
Mets vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, SNLA |
Mets vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (2-1, 4.41 ERA): He looked shaky in his first two starts this year but bounced back by holding the Padres to one hit across five innings on April 10. He missed his last start due to ongoing back issues, but should be well-rested for this one.
The eight-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner put together another scintillating season in 2022 despite dealing with oblique injuries for much of the year.
Despite lower strikeout numbers, his fastball spin rate is still among the best in the majors. His expected batting average also sits at an impressive .209, so expect positive regression when it comes to his ERA and OBA.
Noah Syndergaard (0-2, 5.63 ERA): In Syndergaard's last start, he scattered six hits and three runs across six innings versus the Cubs.
It's crazy to think that Syndergaard is just 30 when you consider that he peaked in 2016. His fastball velocity and spin rate are in the bottom 25th percentile of all pitchers, but it hasn't been all terrible for Thor. His average exit velocity is in the Top 25th percentile, and his expected ERA of 3.67 is significantly better than his real ERA of 5.63.
Latest injuries
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The Dodgers are 2-5 in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers
