Mets vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Walker Comes Down to Earth in L.A.

The New York Mets sit atop the National League after completing their second straight sweep earlier this week. They will look to build on their six-game wining streak against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who just watched the Mets pass them by in the overall standings after getting swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Each team will send an undefeated pitcher to the mound tonight, with Taijuan Walker and Tony Gonsolin dueling it out. Can the Mets build some separation or will the Dodgers reverse course and close the gap?

Continue reading for free MLB betting picks for Mets vs. Dodgers on Thursday, June 2nd.

Mets vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as -160 favorites and have moved to the -165 to -175 range depending on the book. The total opened at 8.5 and has stayed at that number, with some small juice movement in favor of the Over by this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Dodgers predictions

• Prediction: Dodgers ML (-165)
• Prediction: Over 8.5 (-114)
• Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+120)

Picks made on 6/2/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Dodgers game info

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, June 2, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, SportsNet LA

Mets vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (3-0, 2.83 ERA): Walker has largely served as a middle-of-the-rotation arm for the majority of his career, pitching to a 45-45 record, 3.92 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP in parts of 10 seasons. Walker flashed early last year with a 2.57 ERA through June and was named to his first All-Star game. However, he fell apart from July onwards, posting a 6.60 ERA down the stretch to finish with a 4.47 ERA for the campaign. Walker has started 2022 off similarly strong with a 2.83 ERA and 3-0 record and will look to build on that on tonight.

Tony Gonsolin (5-0, 1.80 ERA): Gonsolin would be a top arm in most rotations but given the Dodgers' depth, he has been a studly mid-rotation arm for the Dodgers in his four seasons, accumulating a 15-5 record with a 2.59 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. In his nine starts in 2022, Gonsolin is 5-0 and has yet to allow more than two earned runs, and has now struck out seven batters in three straight starts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Trevor May RP (Out), Tylor Megill RP (Out).
Dodgers: Cody Bellinger CF (Questionable), Max Muncy 2B (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Tony Gonsolin has not allowed more than two earned runs in his nine starts this year, and the Dodgers are 4-1 in his last five.

Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers

Mets vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

As things stand, the Mets sit atop the National League and are on track to end their five-year playoff drought. Winners of six straight, New York will send Taijuan Walker to the mound to open its three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who just surrendered the NL lead following a three-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Pirates.

Walker is off to a blistering start, pitching to a 3-0 record and 2.83 ERA. Outside of one six-run outing in early May, Walker has been lights-out across his seven starts. He has never allowed more than three runs in the other six outings and has four shutout appearances. However, Mets fans may be on high alert with the 29-year-old righty, as they witnessed a similar start last year before the wheels came off.

Not realizing the full potential of their rotation has been arguably the Mets' biggest downfall during their playoff drought, whether it has been injuries (Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard) or seemingly extreme stretches of lacking run support.

And maybe there is reason to proceed with caution with Walker, given some of his underlying metrics. He ranks in the sixth percentile in strikeout rate when he usually floats around 40th; his average exit velocity allowed is in the 29th percentile when it usually floats around the 40th to 50th; his fastball velocity is down to the 40th percentile a year removed from being in the 68th.

He also hasn't had the best luck against these Dodgers batters over the course of his career, allowing a .286 batting average and .462 slugging percentage against, with Trea Turner (.308 BA) and Justin Turner (.286 BA, .571 SLG) having had the most success against the righty.

The Dodgers will send Tony Gonsolin to the mound to counter Walker, and the right-hander has had an even better start to 2022. Gonsolin is 5-0 across his nine starts and has yet to allow more than two earned runs in an outing. And unlike Walker, Gonsolin's advanced metrics indicate that he will be able to sustain his excellence more adequately:

Gonsolin doesn't have much of a sample to speak of when it comes to facing these Mets batters (17 combined plate appearances), so there isn't much to gather there. If there is a knock on Gonsolin, it's his inability to go long in games. Despite his outstanding ability to keep the bases clean, Gonsolin hasn't gone longer than six innings in 2022. In fact, he has only done it once so far in his four-season career.

But there is very little to worry about on that front given the Dodgers possess MLB's second-best relief ERA at 2.87, especially compared to the Mets' 3.63 ERA. The Mets' mark isn't bad by any stretch — it ranks ninth, in fact — but they aren't particularly comparable given that the gap between the two teams is the same that separates New York from the 26th best mark.

Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-165 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

In a season generally lacking in scoring, the Mets' 27-22-3 O/U record is good enough for seventh-best in the MLB, largely a result of going Over in nine of their last 10 games. The Dodgers are 23-25-2 O/U but have gone 14-9 in home games.

Given that we expect Walker to give up his fair share of runs tonight, it may be worth looking in that direction. And while Gonsolin and the Dodgers bullpen have been lights out, the Mets' bats have been absurdly hot of late given their average of 8.6 runs per game in their last nine (and no, that is not a typo).

Weather-wise, the elements also favor the Over. The temperature and wind don't project to play any kind of factor either way but the humidity is certainly of note. The game will start at a projected 61% humidity and is expected to climb as high as 81%.

This is particularly noteworthy given that balls are stored at a standardized 50% humidity, and the ball tends to travel farther in more humid air. This may explain why the Dodgers have maintained such an Over-friendly record at home, given that the average humidity in Los Angeles figures to be notably higher than the humidity in humidors.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-114 at WynnBET)

Best bet

Yes, to Walker's credit, he has a pretty clean record so far in 2022. However, not only did we see this blow up in his face last year, the underlying metrics of his sublime play in 2022 thus far indicate that it is very likely to happen again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

On top of that, the Dodgers are tabbing Gonsolin, who has been even better and with advanced metrics supporting its sustainability. And while he seemingly cannot go overly deep into his outings, the Dodgers are backing him up with one of the league's premier bullpens as well as the highest run-scoring offense (5.48 per game)

Betting the run line on a home team is always a cautious proposition, but the structure of tonight's matchup calls for it. Buy low on the Dodgers after a three-game sweep and with Gonsolin headed to the mound.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)

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