The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday evening at Dodger Stadium. MLB odds have Los Angeles as a -161 favorite, while the total sits at eight.
My Mets vs. Dodgers predictions are targeting a player prop for New York’s starting pitcher, so let's delve into my MLB picks for Sunday, October 13.
Mets vs Dodgers prediction
Who will win Mets vs Dodgers Game 1?
Although I expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to jump out to a 1-0 lead in this series, the -161 odds on the moneyline are quite steep for a series opener.
My Mets vs Dodgers best bet
Kodai Senga Over 2.5 strikeouts
(-102 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The New York Mets hand the ball to right-hander Kodai Senga on Sunday evening, and oddsmakers are once again throwing a low total on his strikeout prop. The reason for this line opening at 2.5 is that Senga is once again projected to open the game for New York’s bullpen and only throw a couple of innings, just like he did in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies.
However, the Japanese right-hander only needs a couple of innings to rack up three strikeouts, which is exactly what he did in that aforementioned Game 1 against Philadelphia. Senga is an elite strikeout talent as he finished last season in the top quarter of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.
In his limited sample size this year, Senga posted an astounding 30% whiff rate and 45% strikeout rate. He’s only faced the Dodgers once prior to Sunday, but it was a dominant outing in which he collected nine strikeouts through six innings of work.
That puts him right at the number we need for the two-inning minimum we're likely to see from Senga, with the added upside of New York potentially allowing the former NPB All-Star to pitch deeper into the game.
Mets vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Kodai Senga Over 2.5 strikeouts
Max Muncy Under 0.5 hits
Will Smith Under 0.5 hits
The first Los Angeles hitter to fade is Max Muncy, whose biggest weakness is Senga’s greatest strength: the strikeout. Muncy ranks in the bottom half of the league in both whiff and K rate and is 0-2 in his career against Senga.
Meanwhile, Will Smith hits right after Muncy in the order, and he is also hitless through three career plate appearances against the righty.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers live odds
Mets vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +140 | Los Angeles -164
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-161) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Mets vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles opened as a -164 favorite and has since been bet down to -161.
- The total opened at eight and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- Considering the depth of both lineups, the market will likely push this line to 8.5 rather than 7.5 if there is any movement.
Mets vs Dodgers trend
Senga has recorded three or more strikeouts in each of his 31 career starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers.
Mets vs Dodgers Game 1 info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (0-1, 6.75 ERA) |
Mets vs Dodgers latest injuries
Mets vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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