The red-hot New York Mets (10-8) head to Southern California for a three-game weekend series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (12-9). Game 1 goes down Friday night at Dodger Stadium.
The Mets have won six of their last seven and are 10-3 across their last 13, but the Dodgers are never an easy out. According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are -200 on the moneyline while the total is 8.5.
Read on for my best bet along with full MLB picks and Mets vs. Dodgers predictions for Friday, April 19.
Mets vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
We’re taking a closer look at Los Angeles Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Friday night’s best bet. The Japanese import has been slightly up and down across his first four starts with his new club, but there are some reasons for optimism moving forward.
First, his underlying statistics indicate that he’s been unlucky to accrue an unseemly 4.50 ERA. Both his 3.35 xERA and 3.14 FIP indicate better days are ahead. He generates a ton of strikeouts (31.8% K-rate) and limits free passes (6.1% walk rate), which is a good sign that his dominance in Japan will translate to effective pitching in the States.
He’s had two successful outings and two poor ones, but it’s worth pointing out that the latter two both occurred against the San Diego Padres. The divisional counterpart seems to have Yamamoto’s number, tagging him for eight earned runs across six innings. The good news here is that he’s not facing the Padres and he’s thrown 10 scoreless innings with just five hits, two walks, and 13 strikeouts across 10 innings in his other two starts.
It’s evident that L.A. wanted to ramp up the 25-year-old’s workload as his pitch count has increased by at least 11 in each consecutive start. He threw just 43 pitches in his unfortunate debut in Seoul, 68 in his second start nine days later, 80 in his third start, and 91 most recently.
With a greater workload comes a greater chance of generating strikeouts. Yamamoto has a strong 12.4% swinging strike rate and is punching out 11.8 batters per nine innings, so the potential for some high K outings are certainly there. It seems as though the books have artificially decreased his strikeout prop on Friday without fully accounting for the fact that he’s now fully ramped up and has posted elite punchout numbers thus far.
His K prop is set at 5.5 and the vig isn’t too painful on the Over. This is a buy spot for me and I’ll be playing the young right-hander to exceed that number against the New York Mets on Friday night.
Mets vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 strikeouts
Dodgers -1.5
Teoscar Hernandez 2+ total bases
L.A. faces off with New York starter Sean Manaea, a veteran left-hander whose profile is all over the place to start the year (4.30 ERA, 5.13 xERA, 3.47 FIP). While it’s difficult to project whether Manaea is due for positive or negative regression considering the sheer amount of noise in his metrics, it’s hard to look past the fact that he’s been shelled by the Dodgers in the past.
He’s made 10 appearances against the Boys in Blue in his career, going 1-5 with a grotesque 7.50 ERA. He’s made five starts and six appearances at Dodger Stadium, going 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA. I’ll take the Dodgers to get the best of him once again.
I also fancy the Teoscar Hernandez props considering he’s a lefty masher (.878 OPS since 2022) who has been swinging the stick well this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers live odds
Mets vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: New York +177 | Los Angeles -194
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 147 games for a 12% ROI.
- The Mets are red-hot with four straight wins. They are 4-2 in away games this year, including series wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati.
- These teams have played to the Under against one another, going 2-7-1 O/U across their last 10 meetings.
Mets vs Dodgers trend
Yamamoto has exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in each of his last two starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers
Mets vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, SNLA |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.30 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-1, 4.50 ERA) |
Mets vs Dodgers latest injuries
Mets vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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